Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - inch Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing corresponding operation suggestions based on their supply - demand, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton &棉纱 - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded today, with the near - month contract stronger and the January contract weaker. The 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads also rebounded. In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profit was under pressure. New - year Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or maintain a positive spread strategy for 9 - 11 [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The rainfall in Guangxi was good in July but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of 25/26 sugar production. Overall, US sugar is trending down, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. Operationally, wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The inventory of cold - stored apples is low, and traders are eager to sell. The price of early - maturing apples dropped after a high opening. The market focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Operationally, wait and see [4] 20 - inch Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated strongly, NR weakly, and BR continued to fall. The supply of natural rubber is entering the high - yield period, and the demand for tires is weak. Natural rubber inventory decreased, while synthetic rubber inventory increased. Operationally, wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to fall today. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, supply is loose, and demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price rebounded. The supply of domestic coniferous logs is expected to remain low, and the demand is good. The inventory is low, and the spot price is expected to rebound. Operationally, maintain a long - biased strategy [8]
国投期货软商品日报-20250804
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-04 13:26