正信期货花生月报20250804：新花生上市在即，期货维持震荡偏弱-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New peanuts are about to be listed, and the price of peanuts has been continuously adjusted weakly this month. The new peanuts in Jiangxi and other places are listed in small quantities, and the procurement of new rice in the wholesale market is limited. The off - season procurement enthusiasm is low, and the support is insufficient. The drought in some areas may affect the growth of spring peanuts. The oil mills' purchase of oil peanuts is mostly suspended, the start - up rate is low, and the price of peanut oil is weakly adjusted. The enterprise start - up rate of peanut meal is low, and the downstream procurement is not active [6]. - The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. After the small amount of new peanuts are listed, the price has weakened. The short - term market price is likely to continue the weak trend. In the short term, the spot price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and market demand. For futures, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating for nearly a year. Given the continuous increase in planting area and unchanged demand, the short - term price is likely to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on whether the price will decline rapidly. Trend traders can try an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints - The planting area of new - season peanuts increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. The new peanuts in Jiangxi are listed in small quantities, and the price weakens after a small increase in supply. The short - term market price is likely to continue to decline. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on weather and demand. Futures are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term focus is on the downward trend. Trend traders can use an insurance strategy, and short - term traders can go short at high prices [7]. 3.2 Market Review - Overall Situation: The peanut weighted index has been oscillating and declining this month, while the oil and fat sector has been oscillating and rising. Since September 2024, the peanut weighted index has been oscillating, and the price continued to fall this month with increased trading volume and a reduced decline, indicating some support at the lower limit of the range. The oil and fat sector is stronger than peanuts, and attention should be paid to its callback volume and price [8][10]. - 2510 Contract: The price of the 2510 contract has been oscillating downward this month, with a rapid decline after rising. There is some buying support at around 8100, but whether the price can strengthen in the short term depends on the follow - up of buying [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Oil Mill Inventory and Start - up Rate: The end - of - month inventory of peanut oil is 39,090 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from the previous month. The start - up rate of oil mills is 4.32%, a decrease of about 2.52% from the previous month [16]. - Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha): The Baisha peanut price has been continuously weakening this month as the old peanut inventory is being consumed and the bargaining space has increased [19]. - Peanut Oil Price Trend: The average price of first - class ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this month is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last month [23]. - Peanut Meal Price Trend: The peanut meal price has been oscillating narrowly this month, while rapeseed meal and soybean meal have been oscillating upward [27]. - Imported Peanut Quantity and Price: The cold - storage new refined peanuts imported from Sudan are quoted at 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton with almost no stock. The Senegalese oil peanuts are quoted at 7,800 yuan/ton, with good quality at 8,000 yuan/ton and refined peanuts at 8,500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume is small. There will be few subsequent arrivals of African peanuts [31]. - Market Price Index Compared with Last Month: In the wholesale market, the overall peanut price is mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price is relatively stable [33]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report provides the data source for the basis spread of peanuts - Baisha but does not elaborate on the specific spread situation [35][37]