2025年公募REITs市场7月报：消费板块走势稳健，交通、保租房派息率提升-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the REITs index fluctuated and corrected, with the consumption sector showing steady performance. The dividend - payout ratio spread between REITs and CSI Dividend narrowed, and the dividend - payout ratios of transportation and rental housing for guaranteed occupancy increased. Guojun Lingang REIT's expansion will increase the distribution ratio in 2025. The first - time issuance of data center REITs saw a narrowing of the first - day listing gains [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 REITs Index Fluctuated and Corrected, Consumption Sector Showed Steady Performance - Index Performance: In the second half of July, the CSI REITs (closing) index and CSI REITs Total Return Index fell by 0.4%/0.2% cumulatively. In the last week of July, as the 10 - year Treasury yield and the stock market both fluctuated and declined, the REITs market regained its upward momentum. Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index and CSI REITs Total Return Index have risen by 10.4%/13.9% cumulatively, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [4][9]. - Sector Performance: - Consumption sector: It has maintained an upward trend for 7 consecutive months, with an average increase of 1.81% in July, and the number of rising REITs accounted for 67% [4][13]. - Ecological and environmental protection sector: The turnover rate reached 1.27% (month - on - month increase of 0.35 pct), with some individual REITs rising and some falling [4][17]. - Industrial park and warehousing logistics sectors: They have risen for 3 consecutive months, but the average increase has shown a narrowing trend [4][13]. - Transportation sector: It fell for the first time since 2025, with an average decline of 0.75%, and the number of falling REITs accounted for more than half [4][13]. - Rental housing for guaranteed occupancy and water conservancy facilities sectors: They corrected for the first time after rising for 4 consecutive months, with an average decline of 1.95%/1.49% in July [4][13]. - Energy sector: It had the deepest decline in July, with an average decline of 2.94% [4][13]. - Dividend - Payout Ratio: As of July 31, 2025, the average TTM dividend - payout ratios of equity - type and concession - type REITs were 3.72%/7.16% respectively. Among equity - type REITs, warehousing logistics and industrial parks had relatively high dividend - payout ratios, while rental housing for guaranteed occupancy had a relatively low but increasing ratio. Among concession - type REITs, transportation REITs' leading advantage in dividend - payout ratio further expanded [4][20]. - Valuation: For concession - type REITs, the energy sector had a relatively high valuation, while the transportation sector had an attractive IRR. For equity - type REITs, the industrial park sector's IRR returned to the historical central level [21][25]. 3.2 Guojun Lingang REIT's Expansion, Distribution Ratio in 2025 to Increase - Expansion Plan: On July 29, 2025, Guojun Lingang Industrial Park REIT announced an expansion plan, with a proposed issuance share limit of 446.1 million shares and a proposed fundraising of no more than 1.7235 billion yuan. The expansion asset is the Kangqiao project, with an evaluation value of 1.532 billion yuan, a 69.19% increase compared to the book value [4][37]. - Distribution Ratio Forecast: After the expansion, the predicted distributable amounts for the period from April - December 2025 and 2026 are 82.52 million yuan and 110.6 million yuan respectively. With a fundraising of 1.7235 billion yuan, the predicted distribution ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 4.11%/4.15%, and the 2025 distribution ratio is 0.39 pct higher than before the expansion [4][37]. 3.3 First - Time Issuance of Data Center REITs, Narrowing of First - Day Listing Gains - New Issuance: In July 2025, two data center REITs were issued for the first time, enriching the underlying asset types of REITs. The number of offline inquiry institutions reached a new high, but the effective subscription multiple decreased due to the large issuance scale of the new projects, and the配售 ratio increased slightly to 0.6% [4]. - Market Performance: Affected by the secondary - market adjustment, the two REITs listed in July did not trigger the daily limit, with an average first - day closing increase of 24.2%. From January to July 2025, the offline total returns for 0.5/1 billion yuan of funds were 1.4214 million yuan/2.8428 million yuan, with a return rate of 2.84%. The three REITs with the first - time strategic placement unlocking in July all had positive returns, with an average unlocking return rate of 46.39%. There are currently 11 first - time issuance REITs projects in the queue [4].