2025年8月流动性展望：央行放松管控放大波动，维持框架内的相对宽松

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, still at a low level for the end - of - quarter month and lower than expected. The central bank maintained the normalization of capital prices by supporting bank lending. In July, the central bank aimed to keep liquidity relatively loose within the existing framework, with the excess reserve ratio expected to be around 1.2%. In August, the excess reserve ratio is projected to be about 1.1%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is low, but the central bank may still maintain relatively loose liquidity [2][3]. - The fluctuation of the capital market in July was related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital market in August may continue the tone of July, and attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month [2][33][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Quarter - end Central Bank Claims Did Not Rise Unexpectedly, and the Increase in the Excess Reserve Ratio in June Was Weaker than Seasonal - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.3pct to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%, due to the central bank's claims on other depository corporations not rising additionally as expected to offset the previous decline. After the central bank announced the liquidity injection of various tools in May, the difference between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency data decreased, and its follow - up normalization needs attention [6]. - In June, the fiscal deposit decreased by 5722 billion yuan, less than the expected 7400 billion yuan. The expenditure progress of special refinancing bonds was slow, and the repurchase of treasury cash time deposits might have led to an additional increase in government deposits. Other factors such as currency issuance, central bank legal deposit reserves, and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations [8]. - Despite the relatively low excess reserve ratio, the net lending scale of banks continued to rise in June, and the central DR001 rate dropped below 1.4%, indicating that the central bank was normalizing capital prices by supporting bank lending [15]. 3.2. In July, the Central DR001 Rate Was Stable but with Increased Fluctuations, and the Central Bank Maintained Relative Looseness within the Existing Framework - In July, although the supply pressure of government bonds remained high, the general fiscal revenue and expenditure might show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the expenditure of replacement bonds was expected to bring additional government deposit injections. It was estimated that government deposits would increase by about 450 billion yuan, and the consumption of excess reserves would weaken marginally. Credit lending decline might lead to a decrease in bank reserve payments by about 90 billion yuan. Currency issuance might increase by about 30 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might rise by about 260 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.2% [15]. - In July, DR001 once exceeded 1.35%, and 1.3% seemed to become the new lower limit. The average DR001 for the whole month did not decline significantly but fluctuated more. The decline in non - bank capital demand led to a decline in DR007 despite the decrease in bank net lending. This might indicate that the central bank had achieved policy normalization and hoped to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework, resulting in stable but more volatile capital interest rates [27]. - The increased fluctuation of the capital market in late July might be related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The freezing and unfreezing of funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange might only impact the inter - bank liquidity under special circumstances [33]. - The cross - month progress of institutions in July was generally slow, but the abundant capital supply ensured the looseness of the capital market at the end of the month [37]. 3.3. In August, Relative Looseness May Still Be Maintained within the Existing Framework, and Attention Should Be Paid to Whether the Central Bank Continues to Relax Controls and Amplify Fluctuations - In August, although the general fiscal deficit might be higher than the same period in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds might still cause additional leakage of government deposits, the net supply of government bonds was also at a high level. It was estimated that government deposits would decrease by about 50 billion yuan. Reserve payments might increase seasonally, currency issuance might increase by about 50 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might decline by about 430 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.1% [3][43]. - Since July, the central bank has emphasized the implementation of existing policies. The threshold for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and it is not the baseline expectation for August. However, the central bank's concern about bond investment risks has decreased, and it may still tend to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework in August [3][56]. - In August, the capital market may continue the tone of July. Attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month. If so, the central bank may further relax controls on bank lending, increasing the fluctuation of the capital market. Although the exogenous disturbances such as the tax period in August may decrease, the decline in the central DR001 and DR007 rates may be limited [61].