华宝期货有色金属周报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty, prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, and future developments in news and downstream off - season conditions should be monitored [9][10] - For zinc, short - term policy sentiment has basically been released, and medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices, leading to high - level adjustments [12][13] - For tin, the downward pressure is increasing [15] Summary by Catalog 01. Colored Weekly Market Review - The closing prices of futures main contracts and spot prices of various non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel) declined last week. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2509 fell by 850 yuan, a week - on - week decline of 1.07%, and the spot price of copper in Shanghai Wumei dropped by 1210 yuan, a week - on - week decline of 1.52% [7] 02. This Week's Colored Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Macroscopically, Fed Chairman Powell was hawkish on monetary policy on Wednesday, and the market increased bets on interest rate cuts after the employment data was released on Friday. Fundamentally, in July 2025, the average fully - costed value of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, down 1.7% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs emerged. The supply of bauxite is expected to decline while demand increases, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down in August, with a turning point in inventory in August - September. In July, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased slightly. As of August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas increased [9] - Viewpoint: High macro uncertainty, short - term price range adjustment, and attention to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices weakened. The Shanghai - London ratio rebounded slightly and fluctuated below 8.1, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. In the spot market, the processing fees of zinc concentrates in many domestic regions were finalized at the beginning of the month, and the raw material inventory of smelters remained high. The import of zinc ore was at a loss, and smelters mainly purchased domestic zinc ore. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy decreased. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. As of August 4, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased [12] - Viewpoint: Short - term policy sentiment released, medium - to long - term supply increase putting pressure on prices, high - level adjustment of zinc prices [13] Tin - Logic: Myanmar's Wa State is actively resuming production, and the market expects an increase in tin ore output. The production and operating rates of refined tin in Yunnan and Guangxi have recovered to some extent, but the raw material supply and inventory are still low, and processing fees remain at a low level. Downstream performance has weakened compared to the first half of the year, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [15] - Viewpoint: Increasing downward pressure [15] 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite increased week - on - week. The arrival and departure volumes of bauxite at ports increased week - on - week [19][22] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, the full cost increased week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi decreased week - on - week [25] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost decreased week - on - week, and the regional price difference increased week - on - week. The operating rates of downstream processing sectors had different changes, and the inventory in bonded areas decreased, while the social inventory increased. The inventory in exchanges increased, and the basis and monthly spreads also changed [27][32][37] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased week - on - week, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week, and the import processing fee increased week - on - week. The enterprise production profit decreased week - on - week, the import loss decreased week - on - week, and the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased week - on - week [54][55] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots increased week - on - week, the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week, the inventory of refined zinc in SHFE increased week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased week - on - week [59] - Galvanized: The production decreased week - on - week, the operating rate decreased week - on - week, the raw material inventory decreased week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased week - on - week [62] - Zinc Basis and Monthly Spreads: The basis and monthly spreads of zinc showed different changes week - on - week [65][66] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased week - on - week, and the combined operating rate increased week - on - week [72] - Tin Ingot Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and China's regional social inventory increased week - on - week [75] - Tin Concentrate Processing Fees: The processing fees in Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi remained unchanged week - on - week [77] - Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss level increased week - on - week [78] - Spot Average Prices: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased week - on - week [82]