Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.36% and the Nasdaq falling by 2.17% due to heightened global risk aversion following Trump's tariffs on 14 countries[4] - The VIX index surged by 36.5% in a single week, indicating increased market volatility and fear[10] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 2.51%, reflecting a dual impact from escalating trade tensions and downward adjustments in growth expectations[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.14%, driven by deteriorating non-farm employment data, which increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September[10] - The 30-year Treasury futures increased by 0.78%, supported by expectations of liquidity easing and policy backing[4] - The current credit spread for 5-year AAA short-term notes is at a historical low of 0.28%, indicating a favorable credit environment[70] Gold and Currency Trends - COMEX gold prices rose by 2.41%, surpassing $3,370 per ounce, as the dollar's strength pressure diminished amid rising rate cut expectations[4] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.04%, with non-U.S. currencies under pressure, particularly the euro which fell by 1.33% against the dollar[10] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, it is advised to focus on medium to short-duration high-grade credit bonds while avoiding long-duration interest rate bonds[5] - In equities, the recommendation is to explore opportunities in the U.S. stock market due to its relative economic resilience and a strong dollar[5] - Gold remains a strong hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty, driven by geopolitical conflicts and slowing growth[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]
大类资产周报：资产配置与金融工程股跌债涨，避险情绪主导市场-20250804
Guoyuan Securities·2025-08-04 14:42