全球股市立体投资策略周报8月第1期：关税影响渐退，降息博弈升温-20250804

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a general decline, with MSCI Global down by 2.2%, MSCI Developed down by 2.3%, and MSCI Emerging down by 1.6% [8][15][17] - Among developed markets, the Australian S&P 200 showed the best performance with a decline of only 0.1%, while the French CAC40 was the weakest, down by 3.7% [8][15] - In the emerging markets, the Taiwan Weighted Index was the best performer, up by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst, down by 3.5% [8][15] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased across major indices, with the Hang Seng Index reaching 198 billion shares and a turnover of 736.1 billion USD, while the S&P 500 had a turnover of 58.6 billion USD [24] - Investor sentiment in the Hong Kong market improved, with short-selling accounting for 13.5% of total turnover, while North American sentiment showed a decline [24][29] - Volatility increased in the US markets, while it decreased in the Hong Kong market [24][30] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations turned more accommodative, with the market anticipating 2.4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [53][56] - Significant capital inflows were observed in the Hong Kong market, with a total of 18.3 billion HKD flowing in during the last week [61][65] - The net inflow of funds into the Hong Kong market was primarily driven by stable foreign capital, amounting to 13.8 billion HKD [61] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index were revised down from 2195 to 2191 for 2025, with the financial sector seeing the largest upward revision [66][68] - The S&P 500's earnings expectations were adjusted upward from 265 to 267, with the technology sector experiencing the most significant increase [66][68] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index saw a slight downward revision in earnings expectations from 336 to 335 for 2025 [66][68]