商品远月强于近月，对未来仍有期待

Market Performance - Domestic commodity market stabilized after a significant correction, with some products like coking coal and iron ore showing slight increases of 2.3% and 0.8% respectively[1] - Industrial silicon experienced a notable decline of 3.5%, while other products like glass and polysilicon saw reduced declines, generally under 2%[1] Price Trends - Following the "倒 V" market trend since July 18, the price resilience among various commodities has become evident, with some products like live pigs and industrial silicon completely offsetting previous gains[2] - Coking coal, polysilicon, and coking coal showed relatively smaller pullbacks of 26%, 44%, and 52% respectively, indicating stronger market consensus[2] Futures Structure - The long-term contracts for most commodities outperformed short-term contracts, reflecting market expectations for long-term improvements, with coking coal's long-term contract priced 3.46% higher than the short-term[2] - Cumulative excess gains since July for coking coal, glass, and soda ash relative to short-term contracts reached 9.43%, 6.38%, and 6.15% respectively[2] Inventory Insights - Steel inventory increased by 1.60% this week, while coking coal inventory decreased by 2.07%, indicating a significant reduction despite high absolute levels[3] - Float glass inventory fell by 3.9%, suggesting a healthy production and sales situation, while caustic soda inventory rose by 3.1%, indicating weaker fundamentals[3] Market Outlook - The commodity market has entered a new phase of differentiation among products, with short-term pressures but strong expectations for long-term improvements[3] - Continued monitoring of supply and demand dynamics across industries is essential for future assessments[3]