资产配置日报：缩量上涨-20250804

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a volume contraction rebound on August 4, with trading volume decreasing from 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan. The morning session saw strong performance from bank stocks, while small-cap stocks gained strength in the afternoon as market risk appetite improved [1] - Major indices rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 0.66% and 0.39% respectively. The STAR Market and ChiNext indices saw increases of 1.22% and 0.50%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.55% [1] - The bond market showed a divergence between short and long ends, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds rising by 1.30 basis points and 1.55 basis points to 1.71% and 1.92% respectively [1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank maintained a net injection of liquidity at the beginning of the month, with a large reverse repo of 544.8 billion yuan announced to alleviate month-end cash withdrawal pressure, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [2] - The overnight interbank rates opened at 1.43%-1.47% and later fell to 1.40%-1.43%, stabilizing around 1.35% in recent days. The 7-day funding rate decreased by 1 basis point to 1.48% [2] - Short-term interest rates declined, with 1-year and 3-year government bond yields falling by 0.37 and 0.59 basis points to 1.37% and 1.44% respectively [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market exhibited a "see-saw" dynamic influenced by stock market movements, with yields initially declining before reversing as equity markets rebounded. The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.71% after a brief dip to 1.68% [3] - Market sentiment weakened as expectations for new government bonds emerged, leading to significant selling by funds and brokerages. However, as rumors were dispelled, bond yields gradually decreased [3] Future Outlook - The bond market may see downward opportunities in August due to expected stable liquidity conditions and a "wide monetary" policy stance from the central bank. Historically, August experiences limited fluctuations in funding rates [4] - The equity market is anticipated to continue its rebound, with the total trading volume at 1.52 trillion yuan, down 101.7 billion yuan from the previous week. This pattern resembles previous market behavior following significant corrections [4] - Market risk appetite shows signs of decline, with a decrease in financing balances and net outflows from equity ETFs, indicating potential concerns regarding U.S.-China relations and slower-than-expected economic recovery [5] Sector Performance - The banking sector performed well in the morning, with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.45%, driven by risk-averse sentiment. In the afternoon, small-cap stocks surged, with the CSI 2000 index increasing by 1.56% to a historical high [5] - Notable sectors included defense and robotics, with respective index increases of 3.06% and 3.42%, likely influenced by upcoming events such as the September 3 military parade and the World Robotics Conference [5] - Precious metals also saw gains, with the SW Precious Metals Index rising by 4.80%, possibly in response to global risk appetite shifts following non-farm payroll data releases [6]