油价再次来到十字路口

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices are at a crossroads again, with Brent crude trading above $70 per barrel due to escalating sanctions on Russian oil and China's proactive inventory accumulation in Q2 [1][9] - Two scenarios for oil price predictions: 1. If secondary sanctions on Russian oil are implemented, leading to a reduction of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day in purchases from India and potential impacts on China's independent refiners, oil prices could rise above $80 per barrel [2][29] 2. If sanctions do not materialize, with China and India having already built significant inventories, oil prices may drop below $60 per barrel in the upcoming months due to OPEC's continued production increases and the approaching off-peak season [2][29] Summary by Sections Russian Oil Factors - The potential for secondary sanctions from the U.S. against countries trading with Russia could lead to a significant reduction in Russian oil supply, particularly affecting India and Turkey [10][14] - China's previous immunity to sanctions may be challenged amid ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations [15][16] China's Q2 Inventory Behavior - In Q2 2025, China accumulated over 1 million barrels per day, indicating a proactive strategy to mitigate risks from potential sanctions [17][28] - As of July, inventory levels in the Asia-Pacific region reached unprecedented highs, contributing to stronger-than-expected oil prices despite OPEC's production increases [17][28] Price Scenario Judgments - Scenario 1: Implementation of secondary sanctions could lead to oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel due to supply shortages [29] - Scenario 2: If sanctions do not occur, oil prices may fall below $60 per barrel as inventory accumulation reduces demand [29]