Report industry investment rating No relevant content provided. Core view of the report - Overseas, the EU has suspended trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, and Fed officials indicate that the timing of interest rate cuts is approaching, with a preference for more than two rate cuts this year. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month, and the economy slowed in July. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and the US - China tariff truce has been extended by 90 days. Global risk appetite has increased, and domestic risk preference has also risen [3]. - The short - term logic of the precious metals market has changed significantly. Gold is short - term bullish, while silver's rise is expected to lag behind gold, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to rise [5]. - The short - term prices of black metals are affected by production restriction news. Steel, iron ore, and other products are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the prices of ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals and new energy products show different trends. Copper is affected by economic data and inventory; aluminum is affected by inventory and policies; aluminum alloy is supported by cost but limited by demand; tin is expected to decline weakly in the short term; the short - term fluctuations of lithium carbonate are large; industrial silicon may be affected by the anti - involution meeting; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9][10][12][13]. - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine and OPEC+ production increase plans. Crude oil prices are oscillating, and asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14][15]. - The prices of agricultural products show different trends. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand; palm oil prices may continue to weaken; corn supply and demand are in a weak balance; and pig prices are under pressure [17][18]. Summary by relevant catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The EU suspends trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, Fed officials are dovish, and the US dollar is weak. Domestically: China's July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. A national child - rearing subsidy system is introduced, and the US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days. Stock indices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level. Commodity sectors such as black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, and precious metals have different short - term trends [3]. Stock indices - Driven by sectors such as military, precious metals, and humanoid robots, the domestic stock market has risen. China's July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. A national child - rearing subsidy system is introduced, and the US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased. Short - term cautious waiting and watching are recommended [4]. Precious metals - On Monday, precious metals continued to rise. The sharp drop in non - farm payrolls data on Friday increased the probability of Fed rate cuts. The inflation rebound in June made the stagflation characteristics of the US economy more obvious. Gold is short - term bullish, while silver's rise is expected to lag behind gold, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to rise [5]. Black metals - Steel: On Monday, the domestic steel spot and futures markets were weak, and production restriction news boosted the afternoon futures price. Real - world demand is weak, inventory has increased, and supply is affected by production restrictions. The steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - Iron ore: On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Iron ore production may continue to decline, and supply and demand are in a state of balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - Soda ash: On Monday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - Glass: On Monday, the main glass contract oscillated. Supply pressure is high, and there is an expectation of production reduction. Demand has slightly improved. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals and new energy - Copper: Non - farm payrolls data is not as expected, and the US economy is in a slowdown trend. Comex copper inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the price is affected by economic data and inventory [9]. - Aluminum: On Monday, the aluminum price rose slightly. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the impact of policies is limited. Short - term sentiment may fluctuate [9]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - Tin: The supply - side start - up rate has increased significantly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline weakly in the short term [10]. - Lithium carbonate: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market is concerned about the risk of mine shutdown, and short - term fluctuations are large [12]. - Industrial silicon: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract declined. The social inventory is at a high level. The price may be affected by the anti - involution meeting [12]. - Polysilicon: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract declined. The inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [13]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: The market is evaluating OPEC+ production increase news, and the US threat to India has partially alleviated concerns about oversupply. The price is oscillating narrowly, waiting for risks to be determined [14]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices are weakening due to the dissipation of anti - involution sentiment. The inventory is in a neutral state with limited de - stocking, and it will maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. - PX: PTA processing fees are low, and PX demand has slightly decreased. The supply - demand pattern is still tight in the short term, and the price will oscillate, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14][15]. - PTA: PTA prices have fallen to the support level, processing fees are low, and downstream开工 has decreased. The price will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - Ethylene glycol: Port inventories have slightly decreased, but supply pressure will gradually increase. The de - stocking drive will weaken, and it will oscillate in the near term [15]. - Short - fiber: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the overall decline of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has slightly increased. It can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [15]. - Methanol: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - PP: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [16]. - LLDPE: The emotional premium has decreased. Supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Agricultural products - US soybeans: The优良率 of US soybeans is 69%, and attention should be paid to the risk of extreme high temperatures in the central and western US later in the week [17]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: Domestic soybean arrivals and oil mill operations are high. Soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down, but the spot sentiment is weak. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans from August to September is high [17][18]. - Soybean and rapeseed oil: Soybean oil is supported in the short term, and rapeseed oil has a weak market. The inventory of soybean oil has increased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly increased [18]. - Palm oil: Since July, Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports have weakened. Domestic imports have increased, and the price may continue to weaken, and the soybean - palm oil price difference may continue to rise [18]. - Corn: Corn trading is not active, supply is tight, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is in a weak balance in August [18]. - Pigs: Pig prices are weak, and there is a possibility of further pressure on prices in the short term [18].
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Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-08-05 00:42