五矿期货农产品早报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is mixed with long and short factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats. However, the current high valuation limits the upward space, and the market should be viewed as volatile [9]. - The price of white sugar futures is expected to continue to decline, given factors such as increased imports and expected growth in domestic planting area [11][12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, with weak downstream consumption and a slowdown in inventory reduction [14][15]. - The egg market has an oversupply situation. In the short - term, short - position holders can reduce positions, and in the medium - term, short - selling after a rebound is advisable [17][18]. - The pig market is in the process of restructuring, with more attention on the opportunities of the spread between different contract months [21]. 3. Summaries by Category Soybean/Meal - Important Information: On Monday night, the US soybeans rebounded. The US - China trade negotiation has not provided benefits for US soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal inventory decreased slightly last week due to good apparent consumption and reduced crushing volume. The US soybean production area is expected to have slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase [2][7]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, consider expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [4]. Oils and Fats - Important Information: Malaysia's palm oil export data shows a decline trend in June. In July, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month. The domestic spot basis of oils and fats is stable at a low level [6][8]. - Trading Strategy: The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current high valuation restricts the upward space, and the market should be viewed as volatile [9]. White Sugar - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou white sugar futures price continued to fall. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the first half of July increased by 15.07% year - on - year, and India's net sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase [11]. - Trading Strategy: The price of Zhengzhou white sugar futures is likely to continue to decline, considering factors such as increased imports and expected growth in domestic planting area [12]. Cotton - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded slightly. The downstream开机率 is at a low level, and the cotton inventory decreased last week [14]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, with weak downstream consumption and a slowdown in inventory reduction [15]. Eggs - Important Information: The national egg price mostly fell, with sufficient supply and slow market digestion. The egg price may be stable in most areas and weak in a few areas today [17]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, short - position holders can reduce positions, and in the medium - term, short - selling after a rebound is advisable, considering the large supply and market expectations [18]. Pigs - Important Information: The domestic pig price mainly fell yesterday, with some areas rising slightly. After the continuous decline of pig prices, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the pig price may stabilize today [20]. - Trading Strategy: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. The spread between different contract months should be focused on, with more uncertainty in the single - side trading [21].