社会服务行业双周报：关注未来可能政策增量对于消费的助推作用-20250805

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][50]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 1.99% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 11th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points [2][13]. - The upcoming policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing employment are anticipated to enhance market confidence and drive growth in the sector [5][43]. - The confirmed closure date for Hainan's free trade port is December 18, 2025, which is expected to facilitate international connections and attract quality resources [3][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was highlighted, with sub-sectors such as tourism and retail showing significant gains, particularly tourism and scenic spots, which rose by 5.74% [17][21]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 33.92 times, indicating a historical percentile of 28.19%, compared to the CSI 300's PE of 12.38 times at a historical percentile of 49.90% [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares [5][43]. - It also highlights the recovery of business travel and the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, as well as opportunities in the cross-border travel market for companies like China Duty Free and Wangfujing [5][43]. Industry News - The report notes significant increases in travel-related searches on platforms like Meituan, with hotel searches up 48% and flight searches up 99% since July [31]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that domestic travel reached 3.15 trillion yuan in expenditure during the first half of 2025, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [32].