五矿期货文字早评-20250805

Report Investment Ratings The provided content does not include industry investment ratings. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture, with different sectors facing various opportunities and challenges. Policy factors, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends are key determinants of price movements in different industries [3][5][23] - In the short - term, the market may experience fluctuations due to factors such as policy expectations, overseas interest rate decisions, and seasonal demand changes. Over the long - term, fundamental factors like supply - demand balance and cost support will play a more significant role [5][25][31] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Shanghai's support for enterprise basic research, progress in AIDS vaccine R & D, and overseas stock trading tax regulations [2] - The central government's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains, but short - term market adjustments occurred due to overseas factors and large short - term A - share gains. The general strategy is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - Tuesday's market saw some changes in contract prices. Central bank liquidity operations and relevant regulations in Hong Kong were announced [4] - The economy showed resilience in the first half, but July PMI was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term with short - term oscillations [4][5] Precious Metals - Prices of gold and silver rose. The dovish statement of a Fed official increased the probability of a larger - scale interest rate cut, supporting precious metal prices [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips, with specific price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - EU trade measures and weak US non - farm data led to a copper price rebound. LME and domestic inventories showed different trends [9] - Supply is tight, but the upside of copper prices is limited in the off - season. Specific price ranges are given for Shanghai and London copper [9] Aluminum - Domestic inventory accumulation and unclear overseas trade situations caused aluminum price oscillations. LME and domestic inventories changed [10] - Aluminum prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges for domestic and London aluminum provided [10] Zinc - Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased, and refined zinc production is expected to rise. Downstream consumption weakened [11] - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [11] Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore inventory decreased, and supply is relatively loose. Domestic inventory increased slightly [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13] Nickel - Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Nickel ore supply recovery is slow, and downstream demand is weak [14] - It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rallies, with price ranges for Shanghai and London nickel provided [14] Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply recovery is expected in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply is tight. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong [15] - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges provided [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index was flat. Weekend non - mine disturbances had a short - term impact on the contract. The supply - demand relationship may improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [16] - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points. A price range for the contract is given [16] Alumina - The index rose. Supply contraction policies need further observation, and the over - capacity situation may persist [17][18] - It is recommended to short on rallies, with a price range for the domestic contract provided [18] Stainless Steel - The price rose. Social inventory decreased slightly, and the supply of some products was tight [19] - The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, with prices oscillating strongly [19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The contract price rose slightly. The market was light, and inventory decreased [20] - The price rebound space is limited due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [20] Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. The overall market was weak, and export competitiveness declined [22][23] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price may return to the real - world trading logic. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [23] Iron Ore - The price rose. Overseas shipments decreased, and demand was affected by individual steel mills. Port inventory decreased [24][25] - The price is expected to oscillate following downstream prices, and risk control is necessary [25] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fell, and the market was bearish. Soda ash prices were stable, and inventory increased [26][27] - Glass prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. Long - term opportunities for shorting soda ash are recommended [26][27] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Prices showed different trends. The market was volatile, and the fundamentals of both are expected to weaken [28][29][30] - Investment positions are advised to wait and see, while hedging positions can be considered [28] Industrial Silicon - The price fell. Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. The impact of market sentiment has declined [32][33] - The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to new policy narratives [33] Polysilicon - The price fell. The market was affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies [34][35] - The price is expected to oscillate widely, and caution is advised [35] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Prices rebounded after a decline. The market has different views on supply and demand. Tire factory开工率 decreased, and inventory increased [37][38] - A neutral strategy is recommended, and a spread trading strategy is suggested [41] Crude Oil - Prices fell. Chinese oil inventory data showed different trends. The market has upward momentum but is limited by the off - season [42] - A short - term long strategy with a target price is recommended, and long positions can be considered for September geopolitical and hurricane factors [42] Methanol - The price fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Port inventory is accumulating [43] - The price is under pressure due to high valuation and weakening supply - demand [43] Urea - The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price decline space is limited [44] - The price volatility is expected to decline after the market sentiment cools down [44] Styrene - The spot price was stable, and the futures price fell. Cost support exists, and the BZN spread may repair [45] - The price is expected to rise following the cost after port inventory reduction [45] PVC - The price fell. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Export needs to be observed [47] - The price fell after the "anti - involution" sentiment faded [47] Ethylene Glycol - The price fell. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory decreased slightly [48] - The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the valuation may decline [48] PTA - The price fell. Supply may increase, and demand is about to end the off - season. Inventory is expected to accumulate [49] - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with PX [49] p - Xylene - The price fell. Supply increased, and demand decreased slightly. Inventory is expected to decrease [50] - The valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with crude oil [50] Polyethylene - The price fell. Cost support exists, and inventory is high. Supply pressure will increase in August [51] - It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene - The price fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price may follow crude oil [52] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices mostly fell. Policy intervention in capacity reduction affected the market. Attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [54] Eggs - Egg prices mostly fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be stable with some weakness [55] - Short - term short positions can be reduced, and medium - term shorting after a rebound is recommended [55] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices rose slightly. US soybean supply is abundant, while domestic import costs may rise [56] - A strategy of going long on dips and spread trading is recommended [57] Oils - Palm oil export data showed different trends, and production increased. The market is supported by policies and low inventory [58][59][60] - The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for an increase in the fourth quarter [61] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and import supply is increasing [62][63] - The price is likely to continue to fall [63] Cotton - Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Downstream consumption is weak, and inventory reduction has slowed down [64] - The short - term trend is bearish [64]