豆粕周报：主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Beans and Meal Products: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to experience large - range oscillations. For soybean meal, the weak fundamentals and the cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs lead to this situation. For rapeseed meal, factors such as the recovery of global rapeseed production, import tariffs, and the substitution effect of soybean meal contribute to the multi - empty factor entanglement [1][3][7]. - Palm Oil: It is in a short - term adjustment phase. Although the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for the consumption of the palm oil market, the possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia may suppress short - term prices [1][8][9]. - Cotton: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The new cotton growth in the US is still good despite a slight decline in the excellent - good rate. In China, the increase in sown area and yield, along with the fast commercial de - stocking and the recovery of demand, limit the downside space before the new cotton is launched [1][11][12]. - Red Dates: It is also recommended to be cautiously bullish. There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. However, there are still risks of speculation [1][15][16]. - Hogs: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The short - term acceleration of the slaughter rhythm may lead to price drops, but the speculation of secondary fattening provides some support. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the capacity reduction [1][18][19]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Market Data: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal closed at 3024 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2994.29 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The national average soybean crushing profit increased by 20.70 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory Situation: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, an increase of 10.60 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 645.59 million tons, an increase of 3.35 million tons. The soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, an increase of 4.47 million tons [3]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, it maintains a slightly bullish rebound trend, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report next week [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2678 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2667.89 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit increased by 5.21 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Situation: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions was 66.54 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons [7]. - Market Outlook: It is a large - range market under the entanglement of multi - empty factors. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed planting weather in Canada, the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations, and the follow - up progress of Sino - Australian relations [1][7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Market Data: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil closed at 8838 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The national average price was 8860 yuan/ton, down 1.45%. The national daily trading volume was 1650 contracts, an increase of 1150 contracts [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of July 25, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, an increase of 2.41 million tons from the previous week [9]. - Market Outlook: The short - term price may be suppressed due to possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia. Be cautious about chasing up, and pay attention to the buying situation of domestic palm oil in the past three months and beware of the risk of cornering the market [1][8][9]. 3.4 Cotton - Market Data: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 13675 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15172 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main contract of ICE cotton closed at 66.62 cents/pound, up 0.39% [10][11]. - Growth and Inventory: In the US, the non - drought rate in the cotton - growing area decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In China, the new cotton yield is expected to increase to over 740 million tons. The commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons [11][12]. - Market Outlook: The US cotton may show a weak oscillation. In China, before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on previous short positions and consider cautiously going long at low prices [1][12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - Market Data: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, closed at 10860 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The arrival volume at Guangdong Ruyifang was 5 trucks, an increase of 4 trucks [14]. - Production and Inventory: The new - season red dates are in the fruit - setting period. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, with a decrease of 20 - 25% compared to 2024. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons [15]. - Market Outlook: There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. This week, it is recommended to cautiously try to go long [1][15][16]. 3.6 Hogs - Market Data: The main contract of hogs, Lh2509, closed at 13940 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live hogs was 14340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - Inventory and Supply: The national sample enterprise's monthly pig inventory was 3719.93 million tons, an increase of 0.31%. The monthly pig slaughter volume was 1125.59 million tons, an increase of 1.51%. The monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4043 million tons, an increase of 0.02% [17]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the price may be under pressure, but there is support from secondary fattening. In the medium and long term, pay attention to capacity reduction. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in the near - month contracts and consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices [1][18][19].