宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250805

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term driving factors for the soybean meal market are the expected tightening of future supply and cost - push, and the soybean meal futures price remains in an upward - biased and hard - to - fall trend. The palm oil futures price is affected by the rotation of the oil and fat sector, biodiesel demand prospects, and energy attributes, and it is in a short - term upward - biased and volatile state [6][9] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Upward - biased; Mid - term view: Sideways; Reference view: Upward - biased. The core logic is that the high Brazilian soybean premium and the solidified import cost structure lead to the domestic soybean futures price being stronger than the US soybean price, and the short - term driving comes from the expected tightening of future supply and cost - push [6] Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Upward - biased; Mid - term view: Sideways; Reference view: Upward - biased. The core logic is that the rotation of the oil and fat sector, biodiesel demand prospects, and energy attributes cause the palm oil futures price to be highly volatile and in a short - term upward - biased state [7][9] Soybean Meal 2509 - Short - term: Sideways; Mid - term: Sideways; Intraday: Upward - biased; Reference view: Upward - biased. The core logic involves import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [8] Soybean Oil 2509 - Short - term: Sideways; Mid - term: Sideways; Intraday: Upward - biased; Reference view: Upward - biased. The core logic includes US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [8] Palm 2509 - Short - term: Sideways; Mid - term: Sideways; Intraday: Upward - biased; Reference view: Upward - biased. The core logic involves biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8]