宝城期货国债期货早报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Overall, it is expected that treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is within a week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out yesterday. Due to the policy emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year and the weakening of the manufacturing PMI data in July, the expectation of an interest rate cut has increased. Since early July, treasury bond futures have generally corrected, and market interest rates have rebounded significantly. Since the end of July, market interest rates have fallen from high levels, and treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the stock market trading volume is still at a high level, the risk appetite of the stock market is strong, and the stock - bond seesaw effect suppresses the demand for treasury bonds to some extent, limiting the upward space of treasury bond futures in the short term [5].