Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coking coal, coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash: High-level oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index, 2-year Treasury bond, 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold, silver: High-level oscillation [4][6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Oscillation [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2: Strong oscillation [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Weak oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: Wait-and-see [10][11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of iron ore is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - The coke oven has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to a large recent increase, and the adjustment range of coking coal is also large. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2] - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The steel market's supply-demand pressure may increase, and short-term steel industry has stable growth expectations [2] - The market's speculation sentiment for glass has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2] - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fallen, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors, and gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4][6] - The pulp market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the pulp price is expected to run weakly [6] - The log market has a good fundamental situation, and the log price is expected to oscillate within a range [6] - The oil market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival of soybeans [8] - The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on supply [10] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are in a wait-and-see state, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations [10][11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, the arrival volume has increased significantly, and the molten iron production is still at a high level. The fundamentals are temporarily okay. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels, and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal supply recovers slowly, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient. The coke has had five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, and the supply-demand pressure of the steel market may increase. The short-term steel industry has stable growth expectations, and consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - Glass: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for glass is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4] - Treasury bonds: The bond market has fallen, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation. Silver is also expected to maintain high-level oscillation, affected by factors such as US economic data and tariff policies [4][6] Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the pulp price is expected to run weakly [6] - Logs: The log market has a good fundamental situation, and the log price is expected to oscillate within a range [6] Oils and Fats - Oils: The production growth of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may continue to increase. The demand for domestic oils is warming up, and the oils market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - Meals: The supply of soybean meal is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival of soybeans [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline month-on-month [8] - Rubber: The supply of natural rubber is expected to be tight, and the demand for tires shows a differentiated trend. The natural rubber price is expected to remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on supply [10] Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: These markets are in a wait-and-see state, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations [10][11]
新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-5）-20250805
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:48