宝城期货煤焦早报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both Jiao coal 2509 and Coke 2509 are mainly "oscillation", with a reference view of "range oscillation". Jiao coal and coke are expected to have a long - term upward trend in price after a short - term correction [1][5][8] 3. Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - Views: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [5] - Core Logic: As of the week ending August 1st, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased and will gradually recover in August. From July 21st - 26th, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1000.5 vehicles, and on July 30th, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year. The daily average coke output this week was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The previous driving forces for the coal price increase have been realized, and the market's optimistic sentiment has cooled. After the correction, the coal price is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [5] Coke (J) - Views: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [8] - Core Logic: This week, coke supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, and the fundamentals still face some pressure. The profitability of downstream steel mills improved, and the decline in hot metal production was moderate. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30th, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. Coke is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and future market attention will gradually return to the actual supply of Jiao coal [8]