宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, along with corresponding core logics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - Price View - Short - term: The price is expected to rise; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - Core Logic - In early August, the 7 - month non - farm payrolls were disappointing, and inflation unexpectedly rebounded, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession and driving up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may rise, and the US dollar index may weaken, which is beneficial to the gold price. The market atmosphere on Monday did not continue to decline from the previous Friday night, and the equity market rebounded. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. Technically, the gold price is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range can be noted [3]. Copper - Price View - Short - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to wait and see [1]. - Core Logic - On Monday, the overall market atmosphere improved, and Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. The disappointing US non - farm payrolls in the short - term reduced market risk appetite, which was negative for copper prices, while the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts was positive. It is necessary to continuously monitor whether the global market trades on the logic of a US economic recession. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. The US tariff policy excluded refined copper last Thursday, which is beneficial to Shanghai copper and LME copper in the medium and long term. It is the off - season for domestic industrial downstream, the upstream electrolytic copper maintains high production, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the copper price has strong support at the July low [4].