中辉期货日刊-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", while some are rated as "Bearish" [1][2] Core Views - The supply surplus pressure of crude oil is rising, and the oil price is falling [1][3] - LPG follows the decline of oil price [1][9] - For L, the number of restarted devices is increasing, and it is cautiously bearish [1][15] - PP has weak supply and demand, and short positions should be held [1][22] - PVC's trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and it is cautiously bearish [1][29] - PX has a tight supply - demand balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad, and it is cautiously bearish [1][35] - PTA has a tight supply - demand balance expected to be loose, and it is cautiously bearish [1][39] - MEG has a tight supply - demand balance, but the macro - sentiment has faded, and it is cautiously bearish [1][43] - The spot price of glass is lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [1][47] - The inventory of soda ash turns from decreasing to increasing, and the futures price center falls [1][52] - The registered warehouse receipts of caustic soda increase, and the futures price center moves down [1][57] - Methanol's supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, and there is no unexpected news, and it is cautiously bearish [1][62] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.31%, and SC down 2.14% [5] - Basic Logic: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half. The oil price center still has room to decline, and the key support level is around $60 [6] - Supply - Demand and Inventory: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. US crude oil production increased in May. Demand in Shandong independent refineries decreased. US commercial crude oil and strategic reserve increased, while gasoline inventory decreased and distillate inventory increased [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [500 - 515] [8] LPG - Market Review: On August 4, the PG main contract closed at 3,921 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [11] - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. The supply increased slightly, and the demand from downstream industries was mixed. The inventory situation was complex [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3800 - 3900] [13] L - Market Review: The L2509 contract closed at 7,279 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 89 yuan/ton [17] - Basic Logic: Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Most devices have restarted, and the supply pressure has increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the restocking power is insufficient [19] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [20] PP - Market Review: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,074 yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 6 yuan/ton [24] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are both weak. The inventory of polyolefin petrochemicals of two major companies has risen, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The production capacity will be released in the third quarter [26] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread [26] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4,981 yuan/ton, and the Changzhou basis was - 121 yuan/ton [31] - Basic Logic: The cost support has improved, but the supply will increase in August due to less maintenance and new capacity release. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory will continue to accumulate [32] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [32] PX - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [36] - Basic Logic: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing but still high. There is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad [37] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities during callbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6810] [38] PTA - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [40] - Basic Logic: The supply pressure is expected to increase due to new device production. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand balance in August is expected to be loose [41] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4730] [42] MEG - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [44] - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrival and import volumes are still low. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is low [45] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4420] [46] Glass - Market Review: The spot market price was lowered, and the futures price center moved down [49] - Basic Logic: There is no unexpected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI has declined. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is structurally differentiated, and the inventory has decreased mainly due to transfer [50] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [51] Soda Ash - Market Review: The heavy - soda ash spot price was lowered, and the futures price was differentiated [54] - Basic Logic: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and short - selling funds have increased. Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory has started to increase again [55] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait patiently for the price to correct [55] Caustic Soda - Market Review: The flake caustic soda spot price was raised, and the futures price was differentiated [59] - Basic Logic: Supply decreased due to summer maintenance, and some downstream alumina plants resumed production. Inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and the macro - policy expectation has cooled down [60] - Strategy Recommendation: None provided [61] Methanol - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [62] - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas devices are restarting or increasing loads, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is good but expected to weaken. Inventory is accumulating [63] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell call options under low - volatility conditions, and conduct a MA9 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of MA [2365 - 2395] [64]