商品日报20250805-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas "rate - cut trading" is heating up, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in September reaching 94%. The dollar index has fallen, and the prices of gold, silver, and copper have rebounded, while OPEC+ production increases have pressured oil prices down. In China, the economy is in a weak recovery, the A - share market has risen with reduced trading volume, and the bond market has shown differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals, copper, and nickel are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts; the prices of aluminum, lead, tin, and industrial silicon face downward pressure due to factors such as inventory increases and weak demand; the price of lithium carbonate is in a state of multi - factor entanglement and fluctuates; the price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors and may fluctuate; the prices of steel products and iron ore are expected to fluctuate; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate upward, and the price of palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][6][8][11][13][15][16][19][21][22][23][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: Fed official Daly signaled a dovish stance. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September reached 94%, and the market expected three rate cuts this year. The dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.18%, and the U.S. stock market rebounded nearly 2%. The prices of gold, silver, and copper rebounded, while oil prices fell due to OPEC+ production increases. The reciprocal tariff 2.0 game is in the second half [2]. - Domestic: The economy is in a weak recovery. The A - share market rose with reduced trading volume, and the bond market showed differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - After the U.S. non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September soared, boosting precious metal prices. Trump's tariff increase measures also increased inflation expectations and risk aversion, further boosting the price of gold. The short - term focus is on the resistance of the international gold price at $3450 per ounce, and the silver price may rebound more strongly after a significant correction [4][5]. Copper - Fed official Daly's dovish remarks and Trump's possible appointment of new Fed officials have increased the expectation of rate cuts, boosting market risk appetite and weakening the dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal market. The Skouries copper - gold project in Greece is expected to start production in early 2026, with an annual copper output of about 30,000 tons. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will enter a rebound rhythm [6][7]. Aluminum - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the U.S. for 6 months. Trump adjusted the tariff rates, and the average U.S. tariff reached 18.3%. The social inventory of aluminum continued to increase this week, and the spot market transaction premium continued to decline slightly. Macro and fundamental pressures have increased, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust [8]. Alumina - The futures price of alumina rose slightly. The futures spread structure is conducive to long - position roll - over, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The fundamental situation shows that the warehouse receipt inventory has not increased, the spot price is firm, and consumption is stable. It is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate [9]. Zinc - The EU's suspension of trade counter - measures against the U.S. and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September have improved market risk appetite, and the zinc price has moved up slightly. However, the inventory continues to increase slightly, and the supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Lead - The lead price has fallen significantly, and the downstream consumption improvement is insufficient. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead is expected to recover, and the lead price will maintain a weak - side shock [11]. Tin - The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises has recovered, but the supply of tin ore and waste tin is still tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has risen above 10,000 tons. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The supply is still shrinking, and the demand in the photovoltaic market is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has been pressured. It is expected that the futures price will continue to adjust in the short term [14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. The supply side was affected by the suspension of a lithium mine project in Nigeria and the successful commissioning of a lithium carbonate project in Sichuan. The policy is in a state of correction, and the market fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate [16][17]. Nickel - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the dollar index has fallen, pushing up the nickel price. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron has increased, but the cost pressure remains. The spot trading of pure nickel is okay. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate under the influence of repeated macro - expectations [18]. Crude Oil - U.S. economic data is lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical factors focus on U.S. sanctions against Russia, with the deadline on August 8th. If sanctions are implemented, oil prices may rise; otherwise, they may give back previous gains. In the short term, the oil market outlook is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [19]. Steel Products - The futures prices of steel products fluctuated. The fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented. The production of five major steel products remained stable, the apparent demand weakened significantly, and the inventory increased significantly. With the approaching of the military parade production restrictions in the north in mid - August, the supply contraction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded. Overseas shipments decreased this week, while arrivals increased, and supply remained stable. The daily average pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans is 69%, at a relatively high level in the same period. The future precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is slightly lower than the average, with limited short - term impact. The domestic soybean purchase rhythm in the fourth quarter is slow, and the tight supply expectation may intensify. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate upward [23][24]. Palm Oil - The market expects the inventory of Malaysian palm oil to increase in July. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the palm oil price may fluctuate and adjust [25][27] 2. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on August 4th, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel products, iron ore, etc. [28] 3. Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals from August 1st to August 4th, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory levels, and basis [29][30][31]