宁证期货今日早评-20250805

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - Silver: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - Gold: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - Coke: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - Iron Ore: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - Steel: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - Pig: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - Palm Oil: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - Methanol: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - Soda Ash: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - LLDPE: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - Short - term Treasury Bonds: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - Rubber: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - Short - fiber: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].