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镍、不锈钢:短期震荡为主
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:48

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an August 4th risk management daily report on nickel and stainless steel, written by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy level of 2 [3] - Procurement Management: When concerned about rising raw material prices for future production needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan, with strategy levels of 3 and 1 respectively [3] Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy level of 2 [4] - Procurement Management: When concerned about rising raw material prices for future production needs, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan, with strategy levels of 3 and 1 respectively [4] Group 4: Core Contradictions - For nickel, the macro - level sentiment has faded. The inventory of Philippine nickel ore arriving at ports is stable, with a loosening price expectation. The August premium adjustment in Indonesia is limited. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and iron mills have a certain price - holding sentiment. The new energy salt factories have some support, and the demand of some downstream precursor factories has increased [5] - For stainless steel, the spot price has increased, and the transaction has improved. Some steel mills have adjusted their production schedules in August, with some resuming production for the peak seasons in September and October. Attention should be paid to downstream demand trends [5] Group 5: Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements like iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, with slow inventory reduction - Pure nickel inventory is high - Nickel ore seasonal inventory rises, weakening the bottom support - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [7] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - The latest value of Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The LME nickel 3M is 15,020 US dollars/ton, with a - 0.05% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 120,522 lots, and the open interest is 95,467 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 21,170 tons, with a - 0.95% month - on - month change [7] - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 209,082 tons, unchanged; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons [9] Stainless Steel Market - The latest value of the stainless steel main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 122,249 lots, and the open interest is 87,475 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, with a - 0.06% month - on - month change [8] - The stainless steel social inventory is 966,200 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous period [9]