Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Given the volatile macro - sentiment, the strategy is to go long at low levels [2]. - Soybean oil: It is expected to fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [2]. - Soybean meal: After overnight trading, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - Soybean: It is expected to rebound and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Sugar: It is expected to trade in a narrow range [2]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: The bullish expectation for the spot market has failed, leading to a collapse in sentiment [2]. - Live pigs: The pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength will be maintained [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamental data: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,838 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.81%, and night - session closing price was 8,890 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.59%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,250 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%, and night - session closing price was 8,280 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.36% [4]. - Macro and industry news: In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons. Malaysia's expected palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 decreased by 25.01% compared to the previous month. The Malaysian government plans to allocate 1.4 billion ringgit in five years to support small - scale palm oil replanting [5][7]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Soybean meal and Soybean - Fundamental data: DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3,024 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.67%, and night - session closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.79%. DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4,117 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 4,133 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.17% [10]. - Macro and industry news: On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering. However, Brazil's soybean harvest and the strong US soybean production outlook are suppressing price increases. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 73% [12]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of soybean meal is +1 (strong), and that of soybean is 0 (neutral) [12]. Corn - Fundamental data: C2509's day - session closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.52%, and night - session closing price was 2,258 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.14%. The price of Jinzhou's corn for shipping decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,340 yuan/ton [13]. - Macro and industry news: The northern corn port - collection price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Sugar - Fundamental data: The raw sugar price was 16.25 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,718 yuan/ton [16]. - Macro and industry news: Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated. India's monsoon rainfall is higher than the long - period average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of sugar is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Cotton - Fundamental data: CF2509's day - session closing price was 13,675 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.66%, and night - session closing price was 13,655 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. The price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 90 yuan/ton to 14,992 yuan/ton [21]. - Macro and industry news: The cotton spot trading has slightly weakened, and the cotton yarn market has not changed much. The ICE cotton futures rose by 0.3% [22]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Eggs - Fundamental data: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,360 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 4.03%. The price of Liaoning's spot eggs decreased from 3.00 yuan/jin to 2.90 yuan/jin [27]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of eggs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. Live pigs - Fundamental data: The spot price of live pigs in Henan was 14,130 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live pigs 2509 was 13,940 yuan/ton [31]. - Market logic: The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August has failed. The supply pressure in August is high, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of live pigs is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [32]. Peanuts - Fundamental data: The price of Liaoning's 308 common peanuts decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton. PK510's closing price was 8,084 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12% [35]. - Spot market focus: In Henan, the inventory trading is the main activity, and the new peanut growth is affected by drought in some areas. In Jilin, the new peanut growth is good [36]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [37].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250805
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-05 02:04