Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar is advised to wait and see; iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is for range trading or waiting and seeing; aluminum is recommended to go long after a pullback; nickel is advised to wait and see or go short at high prices; tin and precious metals are for range trading [1][11]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most products are expected to fluctuate, with PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol in a fluctuating state; polyolefins in wide - range fluctuations; and the 09 contract of soda ash maintaining a short position [1][23]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and adjust; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs are recommended to go short at high prices; corn is for range trading; soybean meal has limited upside; and oils are at high - level with increased risk of a callback [1][39]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various futures products in different industries. It considers multiple factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and international trade situations to predict the future price trends of each product and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Influenced by international trade issues, Fed policy expectations, and domestic market conditions, A - share new account openings increased in July, and the market may fluctuate slightly during the mid - report disclosure period in late August. Index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - Treasury Bonds: After the announcement of the resumption of VAT on bond interest income, the short - term impact on the bond market is limited. With overseas data weakening and possible mediocre July social financing data, the bond market has some positive factors, but the basis for a sharp rise is lacking. 10 - year treasury bonds may fluctuate in a small range around 1.70 [6]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: After the Sino - US talks and the adjustment of relevant statements in the Politburo meeting, the market's over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The current supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8]. - Iron Ore: The price is oscillating strongly. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decrease in hot metal demand, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly. It can be considered as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal supply has regional differentiation, and demand is relatively stable. Coke supply is affected by cost and profit, and demand is affected by steel mills and traders. Both markets are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant influencing factors [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by US economic data, Fed policy, and international trade policies, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Technically, there is support at the 77600 level [11]. - Aluminum: Due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on bauxite supply and the expected resumption of a large - scale mine, the upward space of ore prices is limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, while the downstream demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [13]. - Nickel: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with limited consumption growth. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [18]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is improving, but it is in the off - season of demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the supply resumption and downstream demand [20]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by US employment data, trade negotiations, and Fed policy, precious metals are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export sustainability, PVC is expected to fluctuate shortly, with the 09 contract focusing on the 4950 - 5150 range [23][24]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is high, the demand is showing a slowdown in growth, and the market lacks substantial positive factors. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2400 - 2600 range, and there may be opportunities to go long on the 10 - contract on dips [26]. - Styrene: The fundamental positives are limited, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. The price is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range [27][28]. - Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 14000. Although there is a short - term rebound expectation, the overall situation is not optimistic [29][30]. - Urea: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1680 - 1820 range [31]. - Methanol: The supply is slightly increasing, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product price [33]. - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, but there is an expectation of increased PE demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [33][34]. - Soda Ash: In the initial stage of a negative feedback cycle, with large delivery pressure on the 09 contract, it is recommended to maintain a short position [35][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are increasing, and the Xinjiang output is expected to be good. The downstream consumption is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [36]. - Apples: The spot market is weak, the new fruit growth is normal, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - Jujubes: In the growth period of jujube trees, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to new developments in the production area [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts and secondary fattening, but the long - term supply is increasing. Different contracts have different trends, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [39][41]. - Eggs: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the supply pressure is large. The 09 contract is recommended to go short at high prices, and the 12 and 01 contracts can be considered to go long on dips [41][43]. - Corn: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to range between 2250 - 2350. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [43][44]. - Soybean Meal: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there may be a supply gap, and it is recommended to go long on dips for some contracts [46]. - Oils: The short - term risk of a high - level callback is increasing, but the callback range is limited. It is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [47][51].
长江期货市场交易指引-20250805
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:59