尿素：国际价格上行或带动短期投机性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 1, with a range from -2 to 2, indicating a "neutral" view [3] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, there may be a rebound. The Indian tender in the international market drives up the international urea price, increasing the flow rate of the second - batch export quota. With the increase in market speculation, compound fertilizer factories may purchase autumn fertilizer, increasing the elasticity of export and compound fertilizer demand, which will drive up the spot and futures prices of urea. In the medium - term, after the release of speculative sentiment, the overall fundamentals of urea may weaken again, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market (09 Contract): The closing price was 1,709 yuan/ton (down 5 from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,714 yuan/ton (down 8), the trading volume was 108,843 lots (down 26,636), the open interest was 142,700 lots (up 1,143), the warehouse receipt quantity was 3,373 tons (up 140), the trading value was 373,047 ten - thousand yuan (down 93,677), and the basis in Shandong was 51 (down 5) [1] - Basis: The basis of Fengxi - disk was - 49 (unchanged), the basis of Dongguang - disk was 31 (unchanged), and the difference between UR09 - UR01 was - 33 (down 11) [1] - Spot Market: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Hebei Dongguang remained unchanged, while the price of Jiangsu Linggu decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and those in Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Supply - side Key Indicators: The operating rate was 83.71% (up 0.04%), and the daily output was 193,800 tons (up 100) [1] 3.2 Industry News - On August 4th, the daily output of the urea industry was 190,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 14,700 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 82.24%, a 2.59% increase from the same period last year [2] - On August 4th, India's IPL held a urea import tender with the latest shipping date of September 22nd. It received offers from 22 suppliers, with a total of over 4.5 million tons. The lowest CFR prices were 532 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 530 US dollars/ton on the west coast, compared with 494 - 495 US dollars/ton in the previous tender [2]