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沥青:原油下探,裂解反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:57

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report mainly presents the fundamental data, market trends, and production - inventory situation of asphalt. It shows that the asphalt market has price fluctuations, changes in trading volume and positions, and different trends in production and inventory [1][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of BU2509 was 3,573 yuan/ton, down 2.32% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,549 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of BU2510 was 3,556 yuan/ton, down 2.60% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,530 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [1]. - Trading Volume and Positions: The trading volume of BU2509 was 169,138 lots, with an increase of 51,344 lots, and the position was 93,052 lots, a decrease of 23,728 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 140,311 lots, with an increase of 69,332 lots, and the position was 211,967 lots, a decrease of 5,741 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total asphalt warehouse receipts in the market were 81,140 lots, with no change [1]. - Price Spreads: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 17 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan. The Shandong - South China spread was 195, with a change of 10, and the East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan [1]. - Spot Prices: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - Operating and Inventory Rates: As of August 4, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 34.40%, down 0.51% from July 31, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.74%, down 0.13% from July 31 [1]. 3.2 Market Trends - Trend Intensity: The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish sentiment [8]. - Graphical Trends: The BU - SC is in high - level shock, the South China warehouse receipts are stable, the asphalt index total position shows a certain trend, the Shandong basis is generally strong, the asphalt follows the oil price to fluctuate within a range, and the regional spot price spread fluctuates and stabilizes [2][11][13]. 3.3 Production and Inventory - Production: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 56.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (2.4%) compared to the previous week, and an increase of 12.4 tons (28%) compared to the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to July was 1,927.1 tons, an increase of 163.2 tons (9.2%) compared to the same period last year [14]. - Inventory: As of August 4, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 72.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4% compared to July 31. The inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 187.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to July 31 [14].