融达期货生猪日报：期价震荡偏弱-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 4, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,721 lots today, with a position of approximately 40,000 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,940 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the breeding side, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for hog prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong toughness of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual arrival of the hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support hog prices. If the breeding side continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, hog prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended that previous short positions in the 09 contract can take profits and leave the market and wait and see temporarily [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 4, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan or 0.71% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.08 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan or 0.14% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan or 0.15% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts are provided [14].