国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250805

Report Overview - The report is a Guotai Junan Futures' commodity research morning report for the black series dated August 5, 2025, covering various commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are likely to experience wide-range oscillations as market sentiment cools. Coke and coking coal are also forecasted to have wide-range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.96%. Some imported ore prices remained stable, while some domestic ore prices decreased. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Rebar's RB2510 contract closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil's HC2510 contract closed at 3,417 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.26%. Spot prices showed mixed changes. The trend strength for both is 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan, and silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5,972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Coking coal's JM2509 contract closed at 1,005.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan or 2.1%, and coke's J2509 contract closed at 1,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.9%. Some spot prices of coking coal decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [16] Logs - The 2509 contract of logs closed at 842 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.5% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] Macro and Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period [4][9][17]