宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The international crude oil price dropped due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payroll data and OPEC+ agreeing to increase production in September. PTA has new device commissioning plans in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. PX is currently in an advantageous position in the industrial chain with low inventory, but its future performance depends on additional unexpected factors. The PTA market is weak with new device commissioning expectations and weak demand during the off - season. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market transaction is okay. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On August 4, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all decreased compared to the previous values, with decline rates ranging from - 0.91% to - 3.19%. The PXN spread increased by 4.79% to 253.38 dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread increased by 3.97% to 139.50 dollars/ton [1] - PTA: The prices of CZCE TA contracts and PTA spot prices all decreased on August 4, 2025, with decline rates ranging from - 0.84% to - 1.76%. The near - far month spread changed from 10 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, and the basis increased from - 4 yuan/ton to 2 yuan/ton [1] - PX: The prices of CZCE PX contracts mostly decreased on August 4, 2025, with decline rates around - 0.85% to - 0.96%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged, and the basis increased from 69 yuan/ton to 127 yuan/ton [1] - PR: The CZCE PR 2509 contract closed at 5924 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase. The prices of polyester bottle - chip in the East and South China markets decreased by - 0.83% to - 0.84%. The basis in the East and South China markets decreased by 56 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream: On August 4, 2025, the prices of most CCFEI polyester fiber price indices remained unchanged, while the prices of polyester short - fiber, polyester chip, and bottle - grade chip decreased, with decline rates ranging from - 0.51% to - 0.84% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain increased by 0.82 percentage points to 78.11% on August 4, 2025. The PTA factory load rate increased by 2.75 percentage points to 76.81%, while the load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On August 4, 2025, the production - sales ratio of polyester filament increased by 7 percentage points to 32%, the production - sales ratio of polyester short - fiber decreased by 7 percentage points to 49%, and the production - sales ratio of polyester chip increased by 3 percentage points to 63% [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China started maintenance on August 1, 2025, for about two weeks [2] Important News - The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly poor, and OPEC+ agreed to increase production in September, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PTA will commission new devices in the third quarter, misaligned with PX. PX inventory is at a historical low, and its future performance depends on additional factors. The PTA market is weak due to new device commissioning expectations and weak demand during the off - season [2] Transaction Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,698 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% decline, and the trading volume was 505,900 lots. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,754 yuan/ton with a - 1.34% decline, and the trading volume was 98,700 lots. The PR2509 contract closed at 5,924 yuan/ton with a - 0.84% decline, and the trading volume was 29,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]