国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250805

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report offers trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It indicates that most products face different degrees of market pressure and trend changes, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international market conditions [2][9]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The price is expected to be in a weakening trend, with supply increasing due to the restart of existing facilities and decreasing demand as PTA device operation rates are likely to decline. It is recommended to conduct reverse spread trading on the monthly spread and short PXN on rallies [9]. - PTA: The overall trend is weak. It is advisable to conduct positive spread trading on the monthly spread at low levels. Polyester factories' willingness to hold raw materials is decreasing, and the polyester sector is entering a stockpiling phase [10]. - MEG: The market is in a sideways state, with a downward - driven trend. It is recommended to conduct positive spread trading on the monthly spread at low levels. Domestic device operation rates are expected to rise, and polyester factories' willingness to hold MEG is decreasing [11]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. As of August 3, 2025, the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao decreased. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber ex - factory price has been lowered [12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, the synthetic rubber market will move sideways. By the end of July 2025, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. The butadiene inventory in East China ports continued to decline [16][17]. Asphalt - The asphalt market is under pressure, with crude oil prices falling and cracking spreads rebounding. This week, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased, factory inventories decreased slightly, and social inventories increased slightly [19][33]. LLDPE - The LLDPE market still faces pressure. The market price has slightly declined. In the macro - environment, the fundamentals have not significantly improved, and supply pressure is increasing, while demand support is weak [34][35]. PP - The PP market is weak, with prices falling and trading light. The futures market is oscillating at a low level, and downstream demand has not fully emerged from the off - season [37][38]. Caustic Soda - In the short term, caustic soda is under pressure as it is in the off - season for demand. However, there are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially in mid - August when major factories' maintenance and downstream restocking during the peak season may drive up spot prices [42]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move sideways. The market trading sentiment is light, with supply under pressure due to high port inventories, and demand is poor as paper manufacturers' profits are low [45][48]. Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The previous day, domestic float - glass original - sheet prices mostly declined, and today, some prices in South China slightly increased [52][53]. Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure and expected to move sideways. The spot price index increased, and in the short term, it is affected by factors such as the departure of speculative funds and strengthening basis. In the medium term, it is supported by anti - involution policies and has neutral fundamentals [55][58]. Urea - The international urea price increase may drive short - term speculation. The Indian urea import tender has led to a rise in international prices, which may drive up domestic spot and futures prices in the short term. In the medium term, the overall fundamentals may weaken again [60][62]. Styrene - It is advisable to take profits when compressing styrene profits and short on rallies in the short term. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profits, and high inventories, and the port inventory is in an accelerated stockpiling phase [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market for soda ash has not changed much. Soda ash enterprises' device operations are stable, while downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to adjust steadily in the short term [66][67]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The import cost is decreasing. The PDH operation rate has slightly declined this week [68][76]. - Propylene: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and it will oscillate weakly in the short term [69]. PVC - The PVC market will oscillate weakly in the short term. The industry profit has expanded significantly during the rebound. In the second half of the year, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [78][80]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The market continues to decline at night, maintaining a weak trend. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The market remains weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded [83]. Freight Index (European Line) - It is advisable to hold short positions as appropriate, and the market may continue to be weak. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in relevant freight - rate indices have declined [85].