金融期货早评-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Futures: The domestic economy is under downward pressure and has entered a policy observation period. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range. The stock market is expected to be volatile, and it's recommended to wait and see. The bond market is suitable for band - trading. The EC in the shipping market is expected to be volatile and decline [1][2][3][4][6]. - Commodities: Precious metals are expected to stop falling and rise, and it's recommended to buy on dips. Copper is recommended to hold cash and wait. Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short term. Tin is expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to hedge inventory. Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a wide - range shock. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter a shock range. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have limited upward and downward space. Iron ore is expected to be strong. Coking coal and coke have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended not to be overly pessimistic [11][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][24][26][28]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil is under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space. LPG supply and demand remain loose. It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels. MEG and bottle chips are expected to fluctuate in a range. Methanol's short - term fundamentals are weak. PP is expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern. PE is expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery. Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to narrow the price difference. Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and falls. Urea's 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [32][34][35][38][39][40][42][43][44][45][46][47][49][50][53][54][55][56][57][58][60]. - Agricultural Products: For oilseeds, it's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts. Vegetable oils are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger. Corn and starch are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly [67][68][69][70][71][72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economy is under downward pressure. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are affected by non - farm data and inflation [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the weakening of the US dollar and the central bank's guidance, and it's expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. - Stock Index: The stock market is expected to be volatile due to the lack of a continuous leading sector and short - term positive factors [5][6]. - Treasury Bonds: The decline of treasury bond futures in the afternoon is affected by the A - share market and false news. It's recommended for band - trading [6][7]. - Shipping (EC): Affected by US tariffs and spot quotes, the EC is expected to be volatile and decline [9][10]. Commodities - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices rose due to the recovery of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and they are expected to stop falling and rise [11]. - Copper: Copper prices are affected by the US dollar index, and it's recommended to hold cash and wait [12][13]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is under pressure and fluctuates, alumina is weak, and cast aluminum alloy is in a shock state [14][15]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to decline slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar index [17][18]. - Lithium Carbonate: It's expected to be in a wide - range shock due to supply - side disturbances [18][19]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: They are expected to enter a shock range, and it's recommended to pay attention to the callback buying opportunity for industrial silicon [19][20]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: They have limited upward and downward space due to unclear driving factors [22][23]. - Iron Ore: It's expected to be strong due to good fundamentals and high demand [24][26]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term [27][28]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They are recommended not to be overly pessimistic as the market sentiment has cooled but the fundamentals are supported [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It's under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space due to weakening seasonal demand [32][34]. - LPG: Supply and demand remain loose [35][37]. - PX - PTA: It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels as the TA processing fee is at a historical low [38][39]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: They are expected to fluctuate in a range as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out [40][42]. - Methanol: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and it's necessary to pay attention to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [43][44]. - PP: It's expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern due to supply - demand imbalance [45][46]. - PE: It's expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery [47][49]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: It's recommended to narrow the price difference between them, and styrene is recommended to be shorted on rallies [50][53]. - Fuel Oil: It's weak due to sufficient supply and low demand [54]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It's affected by crude oil and falls, and it's recommended to be short - configured [55]. - Urea: The 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak due to the pressure on the spot market and the weakening of agricultural demand [56]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [57][58][60]. Agricultural Products - Oilseeds: It's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts as the domestic far - month has a supply - demand gap [67][68][69]. - Vegetable Oils: They are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger [69][70]. - Corn and Starch: They are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly due to weak demand [71][72]. Others - Paper Pulp: It's expected to be in a shock state after the price decline, and it's recommended to wait and see [61]. - Log: It's recommended for non - industrial customers to operate in a range and for industrial customers to hedge. The price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost [62][63][64]. - Propylene: The spot price is weak, and the cost is disturbed. The supply is loose, and the demand changes little [64][65][66].