煤焦早报：山西焦煤长协上调，煤焦盘面反弹-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - With major macro - events settled this week and reduced uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine - end production recovery is slow, and downstream replenishment is enthusiastic. For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, and further price increase requires an increase in downstream steel prices. The demand for coke remains resilient, and the coking enterprise inventory is continuously decreasing [4] - Last week, the market dropped sharply due to exchange supervision and under - expected macro - events. The coking coal market may see a battle between long and short positions in the future, which will determine the short - term trend. It is recommended to move J09 and JM09 long positions to far - month contracts and hold them with a light position, and then add positions opportunistically [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Related News - In August, the railway long - term agreement prices of major mines in Shanxi increased. The price of main coking coal rose by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, fat coal by 200 yuan/ton, 1/3 coking coal by 150 yuan/ton, lean coal by 130 yuan/ton, gas coal by 150 yuan/ton, and meager lean coal by 130 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price and Basis - The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal was stable at 1150 yuan/ton, the active contract was at 1141 yuan/ton (+48.5), the basis was 29 yuan/ton (-48.5), and the September - January spread was - 135.5 yuan/ton (-28) [2] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines was 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory was 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Price and Basis - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton (+50), the fifth round of price increase was implemented. The active contract was at 1615 yuan/ton (+30), the basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+24), and the September - January spread was - 60.5 yuan/ton (-21.5) [3] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory was 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - Move J09 and JM09 long positions to far - month contracts, hold them with a light position, and add positions opportunistically later [5]