软商品日报：受到美元疲软提振，棉花有所支撑-20250805

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both sugar and cotton are "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the consecutive drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. Although the growth of sugar beets is generally good, recent heavy rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area makes it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Group 3: Data Summary 1. Price Data - External Market Quotes: From August 2, 2025, to August 3, 2025, the price of US sugar remained at $16.2, with a 0.00% change, and the price of US cotton remained at $66.42, with a 0.00% change [3] - Spot Prices: From August 1, 2025, to August 4, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6030.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming dropped from 5880.0 to 5865.0, a - 0.26% change; the cotton index 328 dropped from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.70% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang dropped from 15400.0 to 15200.0, a - 1.30% change [3] 2. Spread Data - From August 2, 2025, to August 3, 2025, all spreads (SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc.) and basis (sugar 01 basis, cotton 01 basis, etc.) remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [3] 3. Import Price and Profit Data - From August 1, 2025, to August 4, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.5, with a 0.00% change, and the sugar import profit remained at 1597.0, with a 0.00% change [3] 4. Option Data - For options, the implied volatility of SR509C5700 is 0.0804, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.11; the implied volatility of SR509P5700 is 0.0795; the implied volatility of CF509C13600 is 0.1024, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 9.12; the implied volatility of CF509P13600 is 0.0983 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Data - From August 1, 2025, to August 4, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 19443.0 to 19373.0, a - 0.36% change, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 8807.0 to 8684.0, a - 1.40% change [3] Group 4: Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8]