中泰期货晨会纪要-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are judged to have trends such as trend short, oscillating short - bias, oscillating, oscillating long - bias, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, varieties are divided into short - bias, oscillating, and long - bias [3][4][8]. - A series of macro - economic events have occurred, including central bank monetary policy adjustments, corporate incentive stock grants, new energy vehicle sales data, and international trade and tariff policies [11][12]. - Different investment strategies are proposed for various futures varieties, such as short - term strong - trend observation for stock index futures, a steepening strategy for bond futures, and different trading suggestions for black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical futures [15][16][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank's July data shows that SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, MLF a net injection of 100 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase a net injection of 188 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 200 billion yuan. There was no open - market treasury bond trading in July [11]. - The central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the CSRC plan to clarify customer due - diligence requirements for financial institutions. For remittances abroad of over 5,000 yuan or the equivalent in foreign currency, the remitter's identity must be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling over 10,000 yuan of non - registered prepaid cards at one time [11]. - Tesla's board approved a grant of 96 million incentive shares to CEO Elon Musk, subject to his continued leadership for the next two years and a five - year holding period [11]. - In July, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.18 million, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 4% month - on - month decrease. Tesla China sold 67,900 vehicles in July, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of mid - July, 22 banks in Hong Kong were approved to sell digital asset - related products, 13 to sell tokenized securities, and five to provide digital asset custody services [12]. - Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on Indian imports due to India's resale of Russian oil [12]. - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the US for six months and continue to cooperate with the US to finalize a trade statement [12]. - Since April, the issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated monthly, reaching a new high in July with 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [13]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to observe the short - term strong trend and pay attention to the performance at the upper resistance level. The A - share market opened lower and closed higher on Monday, with pharmaceutical and military stocks rising. The market turnover was 1.52 trillion yuan. There are discussions about a possible US - China agreement and Trump's potential visit to China in early September. After the US non - farm payroll data was revised down, the market is betting on a Fed rate cut in September. The stock index has rebounded after a five - week rise and a pull - back to the 20 - day line [15]. Bond Futures - The strategy is to consider a steepening strategy in the short term due to the loose money supply. After the cross - month period, the central bank's OMO maintained a large - scale net injection, and the money supply was loose. The long - term bond market was affected by the stock index's performance and the uncertainty of interest tax, resulting in large intraday fluctuations in bond futures [16]. Black Futures Steel and Ore - The "anti - involution" statement has been relaxed. The black market is expected to be in a high - level shock. Fundamentally, demand may weaken seasonally, but the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore prices are oscillating strongly. The market adjustment is due to the change in the "anti - involution" statement in the Politburo meeting [19][20]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level shock stage. The adjustment of trading limits by the exchange and the change in the "anti - involution" statement have affected the market. Fundamentally, supply is tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported coal supply [21]. Ferroalloys - After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. The price is in a reasonable range, and chasing short positions may be risky. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended [22]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended, and for glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and needs to digest speculative inventory [23]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation to short on rallies. Alumina prices may see a short - term basis repair but are expected to be shorted on rallies in the long term due to high supply and inventory [26]. Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. With rising processing fees and increasing supply, and weak downstream demand, zinc prices will oscillate downward [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The current tight - balance fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, there is pressure from industrial hedging [29]. Polysilicon - Policy expectations have cooled, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt game contradictions. The supply - demand situation is expected to turn to inventory accumulation [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as low downstream production motivation, inventory levels, and international trade policies [33]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increased supply, but the decline may be limited by festival demand. International sugar markets are expected to have a supply surplus [35][36]. Eggs - The price of the 09 contract has hit a record low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is high, and it is recommended to wait and see, with caution when going long [38]. Apples - It is recommended to use a light - position positive - spread strategy. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [39]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures, but there is also bottom support. It is advisable to focus on short - term trading [40][41]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather in the production area [42]. Pigs - It is recommended to short the near - month contract and consider a 9 - 1 reverse - spread strategy. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak in the short term [43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation. The price is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US sanctions, and peak - season demand. There may be a short - term rebound [45]. Fuel Oil - There is no main - line logic for oil prices. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil price fluctuations. The market is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US employment data, and sanctions against Russia [46][47]. Plastics - The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market sentiment is turning bearish. It is recommended to be slightly short - biased and beware of callback risks [48]. Rubber - Rubber prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment and are gradually returning to fundamentals. It is recommended to close short positions and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by the overall market sentiment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. A slightly short - biased strategy or selling call options can be considered [50]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure is increasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [51]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no main - line logic, and asphalt is in a seasonal off - peak season, with slow inventory reduction [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to short on rallies. The cost support is weak, and the demand is low. The supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester chain varies [53]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. The price is likely to fall [54]. Pulp - The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to observe the inventory reduction at ports and the improvement of spot transactions [54][55]. Logs - The spot price has increased, and the market is trading to catch up with the basis. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging at high prices [56]. Urea - The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has boosted the market. The domestic market sentiment has improved, and a shock strategy is recommended [56].