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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India due to India's purchase of Russian oil, which may lead to significant changes in US - India relations and have an impact on the complex relations among India, Pakistan, Russia, and China [7][8]. - For the egg sector, in July, the laying - hen inventory continued to increase, and the supply of small - sized eggs kept rising. Although the market has been trading on the logic of price increase in the peak season since July, the spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. With the arrival of the peak season in August, the spot price declined instead of rising over the weekend, and the near - month contracts dropped significantly after entering the delivery month, pulling down the pricing of far - month contracts. Given the high inventory of laying hens and eggs, the spot price remains under pressure. However, the peak - season contracts on the futures market have reached the lowest price since listing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of old - hen culling, and short positions should be held with caution [10]. - Regarding the stock index futures, there is a higher probability of the market rising after a period of oscillation. Recently, the index has shown a certain degree of correction. Historically, the turning points of bull markets in similar macro - environments were mainly due to two factors: policy shifting from stable growth to structural adjustment and intensified external disturbances. Currently, the Politburo meeting has reduced the intensity of stable - growth policies, and it is necessary to continuously monitor whether there will be continuous efforts in structural adjustment. Although the future direction between China and the US is somewhat uncertain as the 90 - day suspension period is approaching, the probability of a significant shift to a hawkish stance is not high. If the internal and external factors do not change fundamentally, considering the current loose liquidity and positive market expectations, the market is likely to continue to rise after the recent consolidation. If all factors turn negative, the market may continue to adjust in this area for a longer time [11]. - In the crude oil market, the short - term price is dominated by macro - pessimistic sentiment, while the supply - demand situation is gradually strengthening. Last Friday, the US non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, causing crude oil to decline in resonance with other major assets, and the gold - oil ratio strengthened significantly. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of the market's pricing of the US and European recessions on oil prices. Looking at the micro - supply - demand situation in the crude oil market, positive factors are gradually accumulating. For example, due to the approaching US sanctions, Russia's Urals crude oil exports may shrink as India's purchases decline; Iran's actual external supply is still decreasing; the export increase of OPEC + is still significantly lower than its production increase, and the apparent production increase in July was also lower than expected; there is a risk of a decline in US shale oil production. Overall, after the recent macro - pessimistic sentiment fades, there is still a chance for the oil price to reach $80 per barrel (about 580 - 600 yuan per barrel in the domestic market) in the third quarter. In terms of strategy, priority should be given to the positive spread trading opportunities of the domestic SC crude oil futures, and previous long positions can be held as appropriate [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trump's Tariff Threats - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India because India buys a large amount of Russian oil and resells most of it on the open market for profit. Previously, he also threatened to impose additional punitive tariffs on India. The situation may lead to significant changes in US - India relations and have an impact on the complex relations among multiple countries [7][8]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Egg Sector - In July, the inventory of laying hens continued to increase, and the supply of small - sized eggs kept rising, indicating a loose supply of laying hens. The market's expectation of price increase in the peak season has not been fulfilled, and the spot price declined in August. With high inventory, the spot price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the culling of old hens [10]. 3.2.2 Stock Index Futures - There is a high probability of the market rising after oscillation. The current macro - environment and policy trends need to be continuously monitored. If the internal and external factors remain stable, the market is likely to rise; otherwise, it may continue to adjust [11]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Sector - Short - term price is affected by macro - pessimistic sentiment, while the supply - demand situation is improving. Positive factors in the supply - demand side are accumulating, and there is a chance for the oil price to rise in the third quarter. Priority should be given to positive spread trading opportunities [13]. 3.2.4 Other Commodity Sectors - A series of commodity sectors, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, are analyzed in the report, with specific trends and trading suggestions provided for each sector. For example, gold shows a trend affected by the weak non - farm payrolls data, copper is supported by strong spot prices, and zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [15][18][20].