对二甲苯：单边震荡偏弱，向下让利 PTA：趋势偏弱，月差关注正套 MEG：单边震荡市

Report Overview - Market status: PX price declined on August 4, following the drop in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts; MEG port inventory in East China decreased slightly; polyester sales were generally weak [5][8][9] - Investment ratings: PX - unilateral oscillating weakly and downward concessions; PTA - trending weakly, focus on positive spreads for monthly spreads; MEG - unilateral oscillating market [2] - Core view: For PX, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies, with a weakening unilateral trend; for PTA, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a weakening unilateral trend; for MEG, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a downward - driving unilateral trend [9][10][11] Market Data Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6754 | 4698 | 4389 | 6410 | 514.3 | | Change | 6812 | - 46 | - 16 | - 34 | - 13.6 | | Change rate | - 0.85% | - 0.97% | - 0.36% | - 0.53% | - 2.58% | | Monthly spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's closing price | 26 | - 34 | - 28 | - 60 | 5.5 | | Previous day's closing price | 22 | - 38 | - 34 | - 64 | 4.6 | | Change | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0.9 | [4] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 838.33 | 4700 | 4455 | 584.62 | 70.84 | | Previous day's price | 845.67 | 4740 | 4480 | 603.88 | 71.39 | | Change | - 7.34 | - 40 | - 25 | - 19.25 | - 0.55 | [4] Spot Processing Fee Data | Spot processing fee | PX - Naphtha spread | PTA processing fee | Staple fiber processing fee | Bottle chip processing fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 254.33 | 106.78 | 137.95 | - 0.61 | - 6.01 | | Previous day's price | 247.33 | 192.91 | 116.12 | - 27.37 | - 6.01 | | Change | 7 | - 86.13 | 21.83 | 26.76 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis PX - Price movement: On August 4, Asian PX prices continued to fall, following the decline in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts. The PX - naphtha spread widened daily supported by weak naphtha prices [5][7] - Supply and demand: In August, there is no new PX maintenance, but some plants have restart plans, and the operating rate of existing plants will increase. However, the PTA device operating rate is expected to continue to decline in August, and the PX supply - demand balance will become looser [9] - Trading strategy: Conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies. The unilateral trend is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [9] PTA - Supply and demand: Polyester factory operating rates are low, and their willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. The terminal weaving sector's concentrated procurement has overdrawn subsequent restocking momentum, and the polyester sector has entered a inventory - building pattern. In August, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain in the 88 - 89% range [10] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is weak, and pay attention to positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels [10][11] MEG - Supply and demand: The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise to over 70%. In August, Zhejiang Petrochemical 80 is expected to restart, while the restart time of Satellite Petrochemical has been postponed to the end of September. Polyester device operating rates are low, and the willingness to hold MEG has decreased [11] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is downward - driven, and pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the main contract roll - over [11] Polyester - Sales: On August 4, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 40% in the afternoon of the 4th and about 20 - 30% on the weekend [8][9]