国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250805

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Different commodities show different trends such as upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, influenced by factors like macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [3][6]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Non - farm payroll data is weak, with positive price trends. For example, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.42 with a daily increase of 1.39%, and the night - session closing price was 784.50 with a 0.52% increase [7][8]. - Silver: Shows a slight rebound [7]. Base Metals - Copper: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price. However, Trump's tariff policy on semi - finished copper products may impact the market. The trend strength is neutral [12][14]. - Zinc: Ranges within an oscillatory band. Trump's plan to fill Fed理事 vacancies may affect the market, with a neutral trend strength [15]. - Lead: Continuous reduction in inventory limits price decline, with a neutral trend strength [18]. - Tin: Moves within an oscillatory range, with a slightly bearish trend strength [20][23]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory band; Alumina shows a weakening oscillatory trend; Casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, all with neutral trend strengths [24][26]. - Nickel: Intensified multi - short competition leads to narrow - range oscillations; Stainless steel returns to fundamentals after the macro - factor fades, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, both with neutral trend strengths [27][28][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price oscillates, with a neutral trend strength [33][35]. - Industrial Silicon: In a weak pattern, with a bearish trend strength [36][39]. - Polysilicon: Short - term sentiment cools down, and it's necessary to pay attention to news stimuli, with a neutral trend strength [37][39]. - Iron Ore: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [40]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [43][44][46]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [48][50]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [51][54]. - Log: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [55][58]. - Para - Xylene: Unilaterally oscillates weakly and gives downward concessions; PTA shows a weakening trend, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differences; MEG oscillates unilaterally [61]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it's advisable to mainly build long positions at low levels [62]. - Soybean Oil: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [62]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and domestic soybean meal oscillates strongly [64]. - Soybean: Rebounds and oscillates [64]. - Corn: Runs weakly [66]. - Sugar: Narrowly consolidates [67]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [68]. - Egg: The bullish expectation for the spot price is dashed, and market sentiment collapses [70]. - Live Pig: Maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [71]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area [72].