Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-05 03:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [3][28]. Core Insights - The military industry is experiencing a positive cycle driven by domestic demand, particularly due to the ongoing modernization of the military, which is expected to enhance domestic demand and support growth in the military sector [5][6]. - The report highlights a significant increase in global military trade demand, driven by geopolitical changes, which is anticipated to create a strong resonance between supply and demand in China's military trade [5][6]. - The military sector is expected to see an increase in overall valuation as the global military trade landscape evolves and domestic construction cycles expand, leading to greater recognition and higher valuations for military technology [5][6]. - The report recommends increasing attention to military stocks, particularly those related to next-generation equipment and precision-guided weapons, which are expected to enter a growth phase by 2025 [5][6]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 0.08%, outperforming the ChiNext Index, the CSI 300, and the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.74%, 1.75%, and 0.94% respectively [3][6]. - The report notes that the military sector's performance ranked 6th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors, with the average increase of the civil-military integration index at 0.65% [3][6]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense sector last week included Shanhe Intelligent (28.88%), Great Wall Military (22.91%), Aerospace Power (13.95%), Aileda (13.22%), and Zhongguang Lightning Protection (11.08%) [3][12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 84.97, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 71.81% since January 2014 and 99.75% since January 2019 [13][18]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment currently positioned at a relatively high valuation level since 2020 [13][18]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists several key targets within the military sector, including high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat capabilities, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential and market positioning [5][20].