光大期货金融期货日报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock Index: The A - share market oscillated and rose yesterday, with the Wind All - A index up 0.76% and a trading volume of 1.52 trillion yuan. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rise has three logics: long - term, market expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption promotion and inflation recovery, with foreign capital inflows; medium - term, the "anti - involution" policy and infrastructure investment benefit upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, abundant capital liquidity. It is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance yesterday. The central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.9 billion yuan. The "anti - involution" policy met market expectations. In the short term, the bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Stock Index: Yesterday, the A - share market rose, with the CSI 1000 up 1.04%, CSI 500 up 0.78%, SSE 50 up 0.55%, and SSE 300 up 0.39%. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant step. Future central government financing through central bank bond purchases and more fiscal support may drive inflation. The stock market rise is due to long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors, and investors should wait for clearer signals [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Yesterday, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, the 5 - year fell, and the 2 - year was stable. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net injection. Short - term bond market is expected to repair [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On August 4, 2025, IH rose by 0.58%, IF by 0.58%, IC by 1.06%, and IM by 1.53% compared to August 1 [3]. - Stock Indexes: The SSE 50 rose 0.55%, SSE 300 rose 0.39%, CSI 500 rose 0.78%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.04% on August 4, 2025, compared to August 1 [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On August 4, 2025, TS was flat, TF was flat, T rose 0.03%, and TL rose 0.13% compared to August 1 [3]. - Treasury Bond Yields: On August 4, 2025, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased compared to August 1 [3]. 3.3 Market News - In July, the central bank's MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan, with no open - market treasury bond trading [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: Charts show the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [6][7][9][10] - Treasury Bond Futures: Charts display the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18] - Exchange Rates: Charts present the trends of US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and currency indices [21][22][23][25][26]