国投期货综合晨报-20250805

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The oil market in the fourth quarter faces greater supply - demand easing pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, but is supported by sanctions risks and peak - season demand. The price of precious metals maintains a buy - on - dips strategy in the shock trend. For most industrial metals, there are short - term supply and demand pressures, and the prices are expected to be volatile. The shipping index is expected to decline, and most agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as weather and trade policies, showing a volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Category Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which brings supply - demand pressure to the oil market in the fourth quarter. After the price correction this week, there is still upward risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil. Also, pay attention to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs by August 12 [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Crude oil leads the decline of oil - related futures. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the FU - LU crack spread is expected to remain weak [20] - Asphalt: Venezuelan crude oil inflows to China increased by 3.8% in July. The August production plan is lower than that in July, but some refineries may over - produce. Demand in South China recovers slowly, and the overall commercial inventory increases slightly. The price follows the direction of crude oil with limited fluctuations [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The Middle East CP is significantly reduced, but the spot discount narrows. The supply is relatively loose, and the domestic demand has bottom - line support. The spot price has limited room to decline further [22] Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals maintain a strong shock. The market is worried about the authenticity of US data and economic prospects, and the interest - rate market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [2] - Base Metals - Copper: The supply loss rate in the second half of the year is expected to increase. The social inventory increased to 135,900 tons on Monday. Hold short positions [3] - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to increase, and the demand feedback is negative. The price may be under pressure to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in August [4][8] - Zinc: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to policy changes during the "Golden September and Silver October". Wait for opportunities to short at high positions [7] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The nickel market returns to fundamentals. The upstream price support weakens, and the overall inventory is still high. Actively intervene in short positions as the rebound is in the middle - to - late stage [9] - Tin: The tin price declined overnight. Pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [10] - Manganese Silicon: The iron - water output remains high, the production increase rate of silicon - manganese is lower than expected, and the manganese ore price increases slightly. The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside is limited [17] - Silicon Iron: The iron - water output is slightly down, the demand is fair, the supply is slightly up, and the inventory is slightly increased. The price is under increasing pressure [18] - Rare Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price fluctuates. The downstream replenishes goods as the price drops. The production of smelters decreases week - on - week. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [11] - Cobalt: The report does not mention cobalt - related content Chemicals - Industrial Silicon: The futures price continues to decline with reduced positions. The supply in major production areas increases marginally, and the demand growth in August is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term [12] - Polysilicon: The futures price slightly declines. The supply continues to put pressure, and the spot processing margin needs to be repaired. Pay attention to the cost and demand in the short and medium terms respectively [26] - Ethylene Glycol: The price continues to decline due to weak supply - demand and oil - price drag. The supply increases, and the port inventory rises [27] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The prices follow the raw materials. The short - fiber industry may be boosted in the peak season, and the bottle - chip processing margin is limited by over - capacity [28] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. The domestic oil - mill soybean - meal inventory increases. The soybean - meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [32] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The US soybean may have a good harvest. The Chinese soybean oil may strengthen in the medium term. The Malaysian palm oil has weak short - term supply - demand. Adopt a low - buying strategy [33] - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: The focus is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to fluctuate [34] - Corn: The continuous release of imported corn affects market expectations. The Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [36] - Cotton: The US cotton has normal weather, and the Chinese cotton has slow inventory digestion and weak downstream demand. The 9 - 1 spread may rebound. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday - trading strategy [39] - Sugar: The US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's 25/26 sugar - production season increases. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [40] - Apple: The price of early - maturing apples starts to decline. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [41] Others - Shipping: The SCFIS European route index declines slightly. The shipping companies' cargo - collection pressure increases, and the short - term view is bearish [19] - Building Materials - Glass: The glass market is weak with inventory accumulation. The market returns to real - situation trading [29] - Timber: The timber demand and supply improve, and the futures price is expected to rise [42] - Paper Pulp: The paper - pulp price declines. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations [43] - Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock market rises, and the futures - index contracts all close up. The market sentiment is relatively positive in the medium term. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [44] - Treasury Bond: The treasury - bond futures fluctuate. The price spread between near - and far - month contracts widens. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45]