周度经济观察：“反内卷”定价降温，物价中枢或抬升-20250805

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.3, indicating continued contraction for four months[4] - Raw material purchase prices increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5, driven by significant price rises in upstream materials like rebar and coke[4] - July service PMI was 50.0, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, with new orders and business activity expectations being the main drivers[5] Market Trends - The liquidity environment remains a key variable for the equity market, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing supporting market growth[2] - The recent adjustment in the equity market was driven by trading behavior, particularly in "anti-involution" related sectors, leading to significant price drops in futures like coking coal and rebar[7] - The central bank's recent statements suggest a continuation of liquidity support without immediate rate cuts, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook[9] U.S. Economic Outlook - U.S. Q2 GDP growth was reported at 3.0%, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points from Q1, exceeding market expectations[15] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, a sharp decline of 74,000 from the previous month, indicating growing risks in the labor market[20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[23] Inflation and Interest Rates - The market anticipates approximately three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, totaling around 61 basis points[24] - Recent adjustments in tax policy for newly issued bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds, impacting the attractiveness of government bonds relative to credit bonds[12]