Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: Outlook for the Credit Bond Market from August to October 2025 [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Date: August 5, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term (within 1 month), credit spreads may still have room to compress, but in the next 1 - 3 months, spread compression faces resistance and potential adjustment risks are greater [4][6][32][70][71] - Credit strategy: moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window [4][6] Group 3: 7 - month Review 3.1 Primary Market - In July 2025, the issuance of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly month - on - month, and net supply increased month - on - month. Industrial bond net financing decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and urban investment bond net financing turned positive. Bank perpetual and secondary capital (two - tier) bonds' issuance and net supply increased significantly month - on - month. Secondary capital bond issuance and net financing increased, while perpetual bond issuance and net financing decreased [13][16][32] 3.2 Secondary Market - In July, credit bond yields fluctuated upwards, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Short - term yields decreased slightly, medium - and long - term yields mostly increased, and long - term yields increased more significantly. Credit spreads generally narrowed, with weak - quality medium - term notes and bank perpetual bonds performing better. In terms of credit spreads, ordinary credit bonds' spreads mostly narrowed, two - tier capital bonds' spreads mostly widened, and bank perpetual bonds' spreads mostly narrowed. The term spreads within 5 years generally widened, especially the 3 - 1 year term spread. In terms of holding - period yields, the capital gains of medium - and long - term credit bonds were negative, and the short - term holding - period yields remained positive [19][23][27][31][32] Group 4: 8 - 10 Month Outlook 4.1 Compression Phases of Credit Spreads - Phase 1 (May 1 - May 23): Overall catch - up of credit bonds under loose liquidity. Driven by the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the expectation of financial disintermediation and deposit transfer, except for some long - term secondary capital bonds, credit bonds generally rose, with yields and credit spreads declining [39][43] - Phase 2 (May 23 - July 18): A scramble for constituent bonds under the expansion of credit bond ETFs, further compressing credit spreads. Driven by continuous loose liquidity and the rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs, medium - and long - term credit bonds continued to catch up, and constituent bonds outperformed non - constituent bonds [48][52][58] 4.2 Characteristics of Credit Bond Market under Recent Adjustments - Credit bond yields had a pulse - type adjustment, but the widening of credit spreads was not obvious. Driven by the rapid rise of commodities and equity assets under the "anti - involution" background, along with tightened liquidity, the bond market had a pulse - type adjustment. The adjustment range of credit bond yields was mostly around 10BP, and the widening of credit spreads was mostly within 5BP. The credit spreads of long - term general credit bonds were even passively narrowing, and the spreads of constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds did not converge [61][65] 4.3 Market Outlook - Short - term (within 1 month): Credit spreads may still have room to compress. Market sentiment eases, redemption pressure eases, and credit bonds still have a positive carry environment and room for carry - trade and leveraging. The VAT recovery policy on interest income of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds may indirectly benefit general credit bonds [4][70] - Next 1 - 3 months: Spread compression faces resistance, and potential adjustment risks are greater. August - October may be a volatile period for the bond market, with the curve possibly becoming steeper. The difficulty of further loosening liquidity is increasing, and the probability of double - cuts (RRR and interest rate cuts) decreases. The incremental funds for credit bonds may be relatively limited, and their sustainability remains to be seen. The current credit spread protection space is thin, and the market trading structure is fragile. Credit bond ETFs may amplify market volatility [4][32][71] Group 5: Credit Strategies - Moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window. For ultra - long - term credit bonds and credit bond ETF constituent bonds, it may be approaching the profit - taking window [4][6] - For financial bonds,建议 reduce the position and duration of two - tier bonds and pay attention to TLAC non - capital bonds with both offensive and defensive attributes [6] - For general credit bonds, be vigilant about constituent bonds and focus on urban investment bonds and inter - bank bonds. Pay attention to the investment opportunities in 1 - 3 - year AA + and above - grade inter - bank bonds and 1 - 3 - year AA/AA(2)/AA - grade urban investment bonds [6] - Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the expansion of the Southbound Bond Connect. The expansion may bring allocation opportunities, and the dim - sum bond market is one of the core expansion directions [6]
2025年8-10月信用债市场展望:见好就收
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-05 03:45