有色金属周报（铅）：原料持续偏紧，铅价下方空间有限-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material - lead concentrate remains in short supply. The processing fees for domestic lead concentrates rich in gold, silver and high - silver content silver - lead ores have decreased, and the supply of imported lead concentrates rich in precious metals and small metals is tight with a significant decline in tender prices. The supply of scrap batteries is still tight, but as the lead price drops, the losses of secondary lead smelters widen, and the scrap battery prices have loosened [3]. - On the supply side, the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance are resuming production. For secondary lead, the start - up rate is slowly increasing with the expectation of the peak season, but the raw material price decline is less than that of the lead price, and the uncertainty of smelter start - up is high [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream shows a differentiated trend. The demand for electric bicycles is good, and enterprises are increasing their purchases of lead ingots. The export of lead - acid batteries for complete vehicles is affected by weak demand and tariffs, and the start - up rate has not improved significantly [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, the price of secondary lead is inverted compared with electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead. Although the inventory of secondary lead plants is decreasing, the overall social inventory of lead ingots is still increasing [3]. - Considering the support from the raw material side, it is expected that the short - term decline space of the lead price is limited, and the operating range is expected to be between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to the start - up situation of secondary lead smelters under the conditions of cost inversion and raw material shortage [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.19% to 16,550 yuan/ton week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 1.30% to 16,735 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of London lead decreased by 2.30% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [12]. - Basis: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text other than showing the historical basis data graphs. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - Lead Concentrate: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton week - on - week, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight concentrate supply remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 25, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 101.5 yuan/ton [25]. - Scrap Batteries: As of August 1, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the lead price dropped, the losses of smelters widened, and the scrap battery prices slightly followed the downward trend [39]. 3.3 Supply Side - Primary Lead: The start - up rate of primary lead increased to 63.9% week - on - week. The total weekly output of major primary lead smelters increased from 46,875 tons in the week of July 25 to 51,325 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of production after maintenance in some regions [26][31]. - Secondary Lead: The start - up rate of secondary lead increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 47,500 tons, showing an upward trend. A large - scale smelter in Inner Mongolia resumed production and increased output, driving the significant increase in the start - up rate. However, the supply of scrap batteries is still tight, and some smelters said they would stop production when the raw materials are insufficient to support production [49]. 3.4 Demand Side The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries remained flat at 71.86%. The electric bicycle industry has entered the traditional peak season, and some enterprises have increased production and built inventories. Especially after the lead price dropped, the purchasing enthusiasm improved significantly. The production of automotive lead - acid batteries is mainly based on sales [55]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of July 25, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of August 1, the import profit was - 528.2 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Inventory - Domestic Social Inventory: As of July 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 73,000 tons, showing an increase. Although the inventory of mainstream smelters decreased, the overall social inventory increased due to the phased increase in supply [75]. - Exchange Inventories: As of August 1, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 63,300 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 275,300 tons, also showing an increase [78]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The table shows the production, export, import, consumption and inventory data of primary lead and secondary lead from August 2024 to June 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different months [79].