市场观望情绪浓重，铅价仍陷震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current peak - season demand for lead prices is not obvious, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition stage between the off - season and peak season. Although terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the groundwork for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, for this variety, one can gradually try long - hedging operations on dips, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On August 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.05/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On August 4, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, a change of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 46,198 lots, a change of -1,436 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 71,330 lots, a change of -5,008 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,835 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,715 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,660 yuan/ton, a 0.72% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted flat to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory, or at a discount of 120 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract for ex - factory, and some large - discount goods were traded. In Hunan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders quoted a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory. The market was in a wait - and - see mood, some downstream enterprises negotiated for purchases, and the trading was light [2]. Inventory - On August 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a change of -1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 4, the LME lead inventory was 274,225 tons, a change of -1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2].