新能源及有色金属日报：钢厂调涨，不锈钢盘面上涨-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term [3]. - High - nickel ferroalloy is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable. Stainless steel still has cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, there is a lack of upward momentum for prices. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward trend in the near term [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,510 yuan/ton and closed at 120,630 yuan/ton, a 0.54% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 120,522 lots, and the open interest was 95,467 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell rapidly at the opening of the Friday night session, then rebounded after hitting the bottom, and declined slightly after midnight. During the day session, it fell slightly at the opening, then oscillated and recovered, and horizontally oscillated in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day. The US will not adjust the new round of tariffs on multiple countries during the current negotiation. The US President will announce the candidate for the new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in three to four days. From August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. In the Philippines, mines are mostly in the shipping and delivery stage. Downstream domestic iron plants mostly reduce production loads, and raw material procurement remains cautious. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium of refined nickel mostly remained stable, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,170 (- 204.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,865 yuan/ton and closed at 12,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 122,249 lots, and the open interest was 87,475 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel fell slightly at the opening of the night session, then oscillated and rebounded slightly. During the day session, it continuously rose after the opening and oscillated higher in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume and open interest slightly increased compared to the previous trading day. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, and the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, leading to a weakening of the nickel ore market. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars; the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly + 24, unchanged from the previous period, ranging from + 23 - 25. The mainstream quotation of nickel ferroalloy was concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bargaining range of nickel ferroalloy moved up. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, and the futures market quickly rose. Spot prices also increased, but limited by the terminal's willingness to purchase based on rigid demand, only some low - price merchants saw improved sales, and the overall trading situation was average. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 220 to 420 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 913.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].