原油下跌，PX/PTA偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil price dropped last Friday due to the disappointing US non - farm payroll data and OPEC+ production increase. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year as refineries reach peak operation and new supplies enter the market, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1]. - PX supply is expected to increase as Chinese PX plants resume operations and MX production ramps up. The market balance shifts from de - stocking to equilibrium, but PX remains in low inventory. PXN has support on the downside, but the floating price has weakened [1]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory slightly in August. Although short - term supply - demand improves due to maintenance, major suppliers' active selling suppresses prices. The polyester load remains firm in the short term, but terminal demand has not improved significantly [2]. - PF is affected by downstream production cuts, with low inventory - holding willingness and near - month contracts pressured by the forced warehouse receipt cancellation logic [3]. - PR load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the 300 - 500 yuan/ton range after repair [3]. - The strategy suggests a cautious and bearish view on PX/PTA/PF/PR, and provides cross - variety and cross - period trading strategies [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory I. Price and Basis - Includes TA and PX main contract price, basis, and cross - period spread trends, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Covers PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Consists of toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Involves the operating rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Contains PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts [36][39][40] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Includes long - filament and short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, long - filament factory inventory days, and operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [47][49][60] VII. PF Detailed Data - Covers polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, and related operating rates and profits [69][75][83] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, and various spreads and profits [90][92][100]