Workflow
新能源及有色金属日报：7月供给增速提速，8月供给压力不减-20250805
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-05 05:13
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - In July, the supply growth rate of zinc ingots in China accelerated, and the supply pressure will remain high in August. The downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased after the decline of the spot market, but the high growth of supply outweighs consumption, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are under significant pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$10.96 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 130 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -5 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 160 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -35 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 120 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a premium of -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,225 yuan/ton and closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 115,733 lots, and the open interest was 102,725 lots. The highest price was 22,270 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,125 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 97,000 tons, a change of -3,825 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. In August, the expected production is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The downstream procurement enthusiasm increased after the decline of the spot market, and the spot discount was repaired. The cost of domestic ore TC increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit increased. The downstream operating rate showed relative resilience, but the high growth of supply led to inventory accumulation, and zinc prices are under pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]