尿素日报：印度进口招标公布，价格较上一轮提升-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender with a total of over 4.5 million tons and higher prices than the previous round boosted the urea futures price. The current urea production is at a high level with sufficient supply, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. During the export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable, and port inventories will stay high. Downstream industrial demand shows a slow recovery in compound fertilizer production and weak operation in melamine production. The domestic agricultural and industrial demand will gradually enter the off - season, and agricultural demand for urea is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation [3] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,733 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory prices of small - sized urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1,760 yuan/ton (0), 1,760 yuan/ton (+0), and 1,770 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 27 yuan/ton (-24), 27 yuan/ton (-34), and 37 yuan/ton (-24) respectively [2] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.60% (0.08%). The current urea production is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient, with the operating rate expected to remain high in the future [2][3] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 4, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production are relevant indicators for the operating rate [2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender had a minimum CFR price of 532 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 530 US dollars/ton on the west coast, higher than the previous round. As of August 4, 2025, the export profit was 982 yuan/ton (-88). During the domestic export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable [2][3] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of August 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.68% (+5.10%), and that of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.12 days (+0.18). The compound fertilizer operation is slowly recovering, while the melamine operation is weak [2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.73 million tons (+5.85), and the port sample inventory was 49.30 million tons (-5.00). With the end of the agricultural summer top - dressing season, agricultural demand for urea weakens, and upstream inventories start to accumulate [2][3]